Prediction Of The Impact Of The Opening Of High Speed Railway On The Regional Economic Development Along The Line Of Ningxia

With the rapid expansion of China’s high-speed railway scale,it is very necessary to scientifically study and judge the impact of high-speed railway on the regional economic development along the line.At the same time,in order to avoid the negative impact of high-speed railway,it is urgent for the regions along the line to formulate reasonable industrial development strategies to guide the scientific development and reasonable layout of industries.Firstly,this paper clarifies the mechanism and effect of high-speed railway on regional economy,compares and measures the spatial interaction between typical cities before and after the opening of high-speed railway by using panel data,then forecasts the output value of three industries of cities along Ningxia high-speed railway with or without high-speed railway by using grey prediction model,and constructs a control group with or without high-speed railway This paper compares the changes of the regional growth component,industrial structure deviation component and competitiveness deviation component of the related industries of the cities and towns along the high-speed railway in Ningxia with and without high-speed railway.The analysis methods mainly include grey prediction method and deviation share analysis method.The main conclusions are as follows: at the initial stage of opening up,the accessibility level of cities and towns along the line in Ningxia is significantly improved,the economic ties between cities and towns along the line are closer,and the contact strength is significantly improved;the industrial output structure along the line has changed,and the changes of different cities along the line are not the same;the favorable impact of the opening of high-speed railway on the regional economy along the high-speed railway in Ningxia is mainly to enhance the competitiveness of the secondary and tertiary industries competitive power.This paper provides decision-making support for Ningxia to build and build regional "high-speed rail economic belt",benefit evaluation of high-speed rail station planning and relevant regional economic planning for towns along the line.At the same time,this research is also the stage research result of Ningxia philosophy and social science planning key project "Research on the industrial driving influence of high-speed railway on the counties and cities along the line of the district".