Research On Supply Chain Risk Management Of Prefabricated Concrete Construction Based On System Dynamics

In recent years,the new construction industrialization represented by prefabricated concrete buildings has been rapidly promoted,and the construction level and quality have been improved significantly.However,due to the large number of units participating in prefabricated concrete construction,and the complex business relationship between units,the overall supply chain structure is extremely complex,so the information transmission and communication between the prefabricated concrete supply chain enterprises are not timely and smooth The frequent occurrence of such problems makes the overall supply chain risk increasingly prominent,and the management difficulty is increasing day by day.In view of the current situation that supply chain enterprises are in loose business relationship,based on system dynamics and SCOR theory,this paper studies the risk identification,analysis and management of prefabricated concrete construction supply chain,and puts forward corresponding countermeasures.The main work and conclusion of this paper are as follows(1)Based on SCOR theory,the risk factors of supply chain are identified and analyzed,and the mathematical model to solve complex problems is found.The adaptability of system dynamics in the risk analysis and deduction process of prefabricated concrete construction supply chain is pointed out.(2)The sample data is obtained by questionnaire.The list of risk factors in supply chain is optimized,summarized and screened by SPSS software.The dimension reduction analysis of risk factors is carried out by using principal component analysis method.The feedback flow chart of supply chain risk system of assembled concrete construction is constructed by using entropy weight method and system dynamics method.(3)Through the system analysis and sensitivity analysis of supply chain risk by Vensim software,it is concluded that the supply chain risk is a dynamic positive feedback system,and the design process risk and assembly process risk have the greatest impact on the supply chain risk level.According to the simulation and analysis results,the supply chain risk control strategy of "whole plus part" is proposed to accelerate the integrated application of various technologies and policies in the whole life cycle of new building industrialization.The research uses the survey data to verify the effectiveness of the evaluation index system and system dynamics model,and obtains the relevant simulation results and conclusions.To a certain extent,it enriches the theoretical research depth of domestic prefabricated concrete construction supply chain,and has great practical value for accelerating the industrialization and industrial process of prefabricated building.