Empirical Study On The Dynamic Relationship Between The Scale Farming And The Fluctuation Of Hog Prices In Main Producing Areas

China is a big country of pork production and consumption.Hog production plays an important role in ensuring the supply of livestock products and meeting the consumption needs of urban and rural residents.It is related to the welfare of the people's livelihood and the steady development of the national economy.In the long-term historical practice,the development of pig breeding in China shows two distinct characteristics: First,the market price fluctuation of hog is frequent and large,and there will be significant fluctuations every three years;Second,the scale of pig breeding is improving.It has become an irresistible trend to end the traditional breeding mode and to go toward specialized and intensive farming mode.In the past 2000-2017 years,the scale breeding scale of pig breeding has increased from 8% in 2000 to 50% in 2017.It is important for us to explore the dynamic relationships between hog price fluctuation and scale farming in order to further understand the development rule of pig production in China.It plays a decisive role in promoting the layout,adjustment,transformation and upgrading of pig breeding industry and the formulation of government related policies for the development of animal husbandry.Based on the large-scale development of pig breeding industry in China,this study carries out theoretical and data analysis on the characteristics of pig market price fluctuation in main producing areas.It has discussed the current situation and the realistic reason for the development of pig industry scale and culture.This paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between market price fluctuation and scale farming in pig production industry.The article contrasts and analyzes pig breeding scale breeding and pig market price fluctuation characteristics in China and the United States.And it summarizes the experience and reference of large-scale pig farming in developed countries,such as the United States.This paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between the two based on the data of the relative price and scale of pig production in the past 2000-2015 years.The main conclusions of this study are as follows: There is a Grainger causality between the market price fluctuation of pig and the scale of livestock breeding;The relationship between the price of pig and the scale culture by the vector autoregressive model and the impulse response analysis shows that the scale culture of the main production area has a lagging effect on the pig price and the stability effect.By comparing with the pig breeding industry in the United States,it is found that scale farming has a stabilizing effect on prices,but Chinese scale is low and its role is limited.The reason why China's hog price is fluctuating with scale is increasing because our country is in the process of scale development.The number of scattered households has declined sharply,and the scale of the farmers gradually developed,but the output of the scale raising and the reduced output of the retail households are in an uncertain state.It can be predicted that with the exit of retail and small-scale farmers,the scale will be stabilized within a moderate range.After a long period of development,the cyclical change of the price fluctuation of the pig market will gradually weaken until it becomes stable.