Study On The Poverty Vulnerability Of Relocated Households

Poverty as the one of three major economic problems in the world,it has been widely concerned by all countries of the world for a long time,and poverty reduction has always been an important goal of the development policies of all countries in the world.Most countries tend to formulate Poverty Alleviation Policies in the light of the past poverty.And passively adjust the policy objectives with the change in the poverty situation.However,the problem of poverty is becoming more and more complex,the present non-poor people are likely to become poor in the future,the present poor people may be out of poverty or may continue to maintain poverty in the future.Because of the complexity to the problem of poverty.Poverty Alleviation Policies which depending on the past,are not able to achieve all the goal of the policy in many cases.Facing the increasingly severe situation of poverty,it is necessary to assess the problem of poverty dynamically,and vulnerability of poverty is a forward-looking indicator.The Southern Jiangxi Soviet Area is a more typical stricken area in China.So far,poor population is large scale in Southern Jiangxi Soviet Area,the phenomenon of returning to poverty is still prominent,a series of practical and reliable policies for poverty alleviation have been implemented,the relocation of poverty alleviation is one of the important models.However,“It is necessary to make a steady move”,and how to make a steady move? This is a question worth thinking deeply.This article holds that,the current framework of poverty assessment,it is necessary to introduce the index of poverty vulnerability,in order to predict the permanent income and volatility of relocated households,so then,calculating possibility to every household in poverty or return poverty in the future,on improving the efficiency of precision poverty alleviation,and it is of great significance to realize the overall construction of a well-off society in the Southern Jiangxi Soviet Area in 2020.Firstly,introduces the situation of the data sources,research methods and model selection.In this paper,the data of the poverty vulnerability to relocated households in the Southern Jiangxi Soviet Area were collected in January 2017 and May.Based on the framework of sustainable livelihoods analysis,the index system for measuring poverty vulnerability of relocated households in the Southern Jiangxi Soviet Area is constructed,which includes five dimensions of livelihood capital and risk shock variables.Model is adopted which is the three stage feasible generalized least squares(FGLS),the mean and variance of relocated households' future income are estimated,and then,put the mean and variance into the expected poverty vulnerability(VEP)formula,measure the poverty vulnerability of relocated households under the poverty line standard of RMB 1274 yuan,RMB 2300 yuan,1.25 dollars and 2 dollars,and make descriptive statistical analysis to the measurement.On the basis of the existing research,taking the three dimensions of relocation characteristics,family characteristics and community characteristics as independent variables,the poverty vulnerability of relocated households under the poverty line standard of RMB 1274 yuan,RMB 2300 yuan,1.25 dollars and 2 dollars is used as dependent variable respectively.And then,set up a linear regression model,discuss under the standard of different poverty line,the impact of relocation characteristics,family characteristics and community characteristics on the poverty vulnerability of relocated households.Then,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,the measurement of poverty and the measurement of poverty vulnerability are not exactly the same,and with the improvement of poverty standards,the proportion of households with high poverty vulnerability increases,and the degree of inconsistency between poverty measurement and poverty vulnerability measurement increases.Secondly,under the standards of different poverty lines,there are differences in the incidence of poverty among relocated households in the Southern Jiangxi Soviet Area,with the improvement of the poverty line,the incidence of poverty increases.Under the poverty line standard of RMB 1274 yuan,RMB 2300 yuan,1.25 dollars and 2 dollars,the incidence of poverty is 3.83%,6.22%,10.05% and 30.14% respectively.It shows that the accuracy of measurement results of poverty rate is affected by the poverty line standard.The accuracy is different under different poverty line standards.Thirdly,under the standards of different poverty lines,There are differences in poverty vulnerability of relocated households in the Southern Jiangxi Soviet Area.With the improvement of poverty line,the degree of poverty vulnerability increases.Under the poverty line standard of RMB 1274 yuan,RMB 2300 yuan,1.25 dollars and 2 dollars,the degree of poverty vulnerability is 20.43%,28.48%,31.96% and 39.61% respectively.That is to say,the probability that all households will get into poverty in the future will be 20.43%,28.48%,31.96% and 39.61% respectively.It shows that the accuracy of measurement to poverty vulnerability is affected by the poverty line standard.The accuracy is different under different poverty line standards.Fourthly,under the standards of different poverty lines,poor and low vulnerability relocated households,Their vulnerability to poverty is lower than that of non poor and highly vulnerable relocated households,which means that the non poor groups are more likely to get into poverty in the future.Non poor relocated households may face various impact events.Such as natural disasters,disease burden,stress,such as weddings and marriage education.Or because of the unreasonable living capital structure and the decrease of living capital,leading to a decline in the ability to resist risks.Fifthly,from the perspective of the characteristics of relocation households and the state of living capital possession,the households with poorer vulnerability have the following characteristics:The family size is relatively large,the number of migrant workers is relatively low,the income of migrant workers is low,family members have not participated in non-agricultural technology training,and human capital is insufficient;the original value of houses is low,the original value of basic production assets is low,less physical capital;Poor neighbourhood,less government subsidies,the non poor households,and lack of social capital;the area of cultivated land is less,the quality of cultivated land is poor,and natural capital is less;poverty vulnerable households are mostly distributed in mountainous areas with poor terrain.Sixthly,under the standards of different poverty lines,the significant factors of poverty vulnerability include migration characteristics,family characteristics,and community characteristics in Southern Jiangxi Soviet Area.Under the standards of different poverty lines,from the feature factor of relocation.The type of migration has a very significant negative impact on the poverty vulnerability of relocated households,it shows that the more inclined to immigrant in the mountains,the higher the vulnerability is;the way of resettlement has a very significant negative impact on the vulnerability of relocated households,it shows that the more inclined to centralized resettlement,the poverty vulnerability is lower;the year of migration has a positive impact on the poverty vulnerability of relocated households,the significance level is less than or equal to 10%,it shows that the longer the years of immigration,the higher the poverty vulnerability;Under the poverty line standard of RMB 1274 yuan,RMB 2300 yuan and 1.25 dollars,the willingness of relocation has a negative impact on the poverty vulnerability of relocated households,the significance level is less than or equal to 10%,it indicates that relocated households who prefer spontaneous migration have lower vulnerability.Under the standards of different poverty lines,from the feature factor of family.under the poverty line standards of RMB1274 yuan,family scale has a positive impact on households' poverty vulnerability,the significance level is 10%,the greater the scale of the family,the higher the poverty vulnerability,it may be due to the large family size that leads to low per capita net income or low level of per capita consumption,resulting in higher vulnerability;there is a significant positive correlation between the number of migrant workers and their poverty vulnerability,the more the number of migrant workers,the lower the vulnerability,Under the poverty line standard of RMB 1274 yuan,RMB 2300 yuan,1.25 dollars and 2 dollars,the number of migrant workers increased by 1,the vulnerability decreased by 2.6%,3.6%,4%,4.9%,respectively;The age of householders showed a significant positive correlation with vulnerability,the older the age of the householders,the higher the vulnerability,under the poverty line standard of RMB 1274 yuan,the age of the householders increased by 1 years,and the vulnerability increased by 0.1%,Under the poverty line standard of RMB 2300 yuan,1.25 dollars and 2 dollars,the age of the householders increased by 1 years,and the vulnerability increased by 0.2%;there is a significant negative correlation between the education degree of the householder,it indicates that the higher the educational years of the householders,the lower the vulnerability,under the poverty line standard of RMB 1274 yuan,the education years of the householders increased by 1 years,and the vulnerability decreased by 0.3%,under other poverty line,decreased by 0.4%;the householders are Chinese Communists,and have a very significant negative correlation with vulnerability,it shows that householders who tend to be the member of Chinese Communist Party are less vulnerable;in different models,householders are rural cadre,and have significant negative correlation with vulnerability,it indicates that farmers tend to be rural cadres have less vulnerable.Under the standards of different poverty lines,from the feature factor of community.The degree of neighborhood harmony has a very significant negative impact on vulnerability,the better the neighbourhood,the lower the vulnerability;the distance from the county town to the vulnerability is at 10% and 1% level,respectively,and has a significant positive impact,the farther away from the county town,the higher the vulnerability;the terrain condition of the community has a significant positive impact on vulnerability,the terrain condition of the community tends to be lower for the plain farmers.Finally,according to the main conclusions,from four aspects,this paper put forward corresponding policy recommendations to reduce the poverty vulnerability of relocated households in Southern Jiangxi Soviet Area from the following aspects,which is improve the relocated households' livelihood capital,next,the establishment of households to cape with the impact of risk early warning mechanism,and then,transfer the emphasis of poverty alleviation work to relocated households in the Southern Jiangxi Soviet Area,finally,make a more reasonable and effective poverty line.