Study On Social Security Cost Of Population Urbanization In Xinjiang

With the continuous promotion and development of urbanization and economy in China,a large number of rural population gradually move to cities,thus becoming an indispensable part of the labor force in urban economic development.In recent years,population urbanization in xinjiang has also been developing rapidly.In the process of population urbanization,various costs will be involved.The most important part of a large number of costs of population urbanization is the cost of social security,which also affects the process of new urbanization and the quality of development.Therefore,it is an urgent problem to be solved in the process of population urbanization in xinjiang in terms of the number of population to be urbanized,the cost of social security to be needed in the future,whether the government's existing financial resources and social and economic development can bear it,and how to share the social security cost of population urbanization among all subjects.In this paper,the classification and addition method and the cost difference calculation method are mainly used to calculate the social security cost of population urbanization,the gray prediction GM(1,1)model and other methods to predict the future social security cost and social security cost sharing mechanism as the main body.First of all,by sorting out the domestic and foreign studies on social security costs,this paper introduces the background of population urbanization,measures and explains the significance of predicting social security costs in the process of urbanization.Then it introduces different methods of social security cost measurement and social security cost prediction.Secondly,it analyzes the current situation of xinjiang's total social security expenditure,social security level and social security level development coefficient,and makes a comparative analysis with the national social security level,so as to establish a social security cost index system.It can be seen from the proportion of each insurance over the years that endowment insurance,medical insurance and other life security account for a larger proportion,which is about 55%,15% and 15%respectively.Among all kinds of social security costs,the public cost of social security for a newly added urban population is 3,989.58 yuan,the personal cost is 4,483.51 yuan,and the enterprise cost is 12,961.43 yuan.From the perspective of the social security costs borne by the three subjects over the years,enterprise costs are the main part of the social security costs of population urbanization,accounting for 60% of the total annual cost,and individual costsand enterprise costs respectively accounting for 20%.From 2008 to 2017,enterprise costs increased rapidly.Finally,on the basis of referring to the existing literature,the exponential smoothing method,gray prediction method and ARIMA model prediction are respectively used to predict and compare the social security cost of population urbanization,so as to scientifically predict the social security cost in 2018-2020.A reliable prediction of the rapidly growing social security cost can help us to have a deeper understanding of the development law of the social security cost of population urbanization,which is of great practical and reference value for promoting and developing the new urbanization process in xinjiang.As a result,an additional 1,291,000 people will need to become urban by 2020,with an average of about 430,000 people becoming urban each year.Based on the above main causes and calculation results,it can be concluded that the total cost of social security needed to be increased from 2018 to 2020 is 36.067 billion yuan,and about 12 billion yuan of social security cost needs to be increased annually on average to support the urbanization process.At the same time,it proposes to promote the reform of the land system,improve the employment system for the newly added urban population,appropriately increase the government's social security cost sharing and improve the social security payment mechanism,improve the sharing power of enterprises and improve the endowment insurance system and other public policy systems to improve the population urbanization.It is of great significance to build a harmonious society,maintain social stability,promote social and economic development and give play to social equity.