| Forecasting the trend of population changes accurately and making the correct education development plan is the basis of protecting the education needs of school-age and avoiding the structural contradictions of educational resources supply.UNESCO pointed out that "all aspects of educational development planning are related to population size,structure and distribution,we must take full account of population dynamics." Western countries has always attached great importance to population changes in education planning,the United States researched on the change of school-age population impacted education development,these research can narrow into the school district and even schools,these research include:fertility changes,population migration,aging and so on how to affect education needs,In order to provide decision-making basis for education planning.Therefore,the policy of"universal two child" may bring about changes in the birth rate.To meet the needs of the society for compulsory education effectively,we must accurately predict the size of the population of compulsory education and make reasonable planning on the distribution of school-age,teachers,education funding.This study first analyzes the changes in the school-age population of compulsory education and the impact on teachers and funding for compulsory education over the past two decades.And then analyzes the trend of the number of students in the compulsory education stage after the introduction of the policy of "universal two child" in our country,and then predicts the change of the number of the school-age population under the influence of the policy of "universal two child" between 2016 and 2030 how to influence teacher,funding and school building area and so on in the compulsory education stage.And finally put forward a series of countermeasures for the resource supply of compulsory education after the policy of "universal two child".This study uses three research methods:the literature method,mainly access to data of the development of compulsory education on the Ministry of Education website,China knowledge network;the combination of the oretical analysis and empirical analysis.predicting the number of students at school,the number of teachers,public finance budget,school building area of the compulsory education by use of access to the relevant data;comparative analysis,the study put urbanization into it,comparing urban and rural compulsory education development trend.Mainly found in urban and rural areas,the scale of students in the school in rural areas by the"universal two child" policy is less than urban education."universal two child" policy in 2022 began to work on compulsory education,urban primary school faculty will be in short supply,the number of rural junior high school faculty needs little,and staff demand of urban junior high school will be more and more,after 2027 it will demand more and need to be added in time.China's compulsory education stage also need to continue to increase the public budget.Rural primary and secondary school building area has been able to meet the future development needs;but the urban primary and secondary schools are also in a serious shortage on these aspects.In order to cope with the challenge of the "universal two-child" policy brought about by the change of the school-age population to the supply of compulsory education resources in our country,we should establish a scientific information system of population and education resource management;alert the urban population crest under the "universal two-child" policy;allocating teacher resources rationally according to the change of population dynamics;combined with the characteristics of school-age population changes to adjust the investment in education;to determine a reasonable school layout in order to cope with changes in school-age population;to promote the inclusive development of compulsory education with "universal two-child" opportunity. |
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