Prediction Of Pre-school And School-aged Population And Demand Of Educational Resource In Basic Education Of Chongqing Under The Policy Of "two Children A Couple"

In order to relieve varieties of social problems further in Chongqing such as aging of the population and shortage of labor force,a series of significant policies including persisting in the basic national policy of family planning,improving the Population Development Strategy,implementing the policy of “two children a couple” have been put forward and will be carried out on January 1st,2016 on The Fifth Plenum of the 18 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held in October,2015.The policy of “two children a couple” which is contribute to relieve the aging of the population and shortage of labor force and reduce the pressure of supporting the elderly,is benefit for the progress of the society and family happiness.Population of Chongqing will be increased under the Policy of “two children a couple”,which have a huge impact on basic education first.The demand of educational resource will be effected by pre-school and school-aged population growth caused by the policy.Furthermore,the quality of basic education and growth of students will be also affected by the supporting hardware facilities or daily management.In order to make prediction accurately to avoid the risk of educational resources distribution,it is necessary and urgent to make plans for basic education in advance,which will cope with the impact of population changes on the demand of educational resource to avoid shortage or excess supply,laying a theoretical and empirical foundation for making plans for the development of basic education in the future.With literature research,investigation and statistical analysis,the research tries to predict the pre-school and school-aged population in basic education from 2016 to 2035 after implementing policy of “two children a couple” through The Development Model of Discrete Population in Multiple Areas that commonly used in demography and programming with MATLAB based on sixth census data of Chongqing.Then,according to the school-aged population prediction results and enrollment rate changes,predict the number of students in the changes in the situation.Compared the peak and 2015 existing educational resources to calculate the educational resources gap.The focus of this research is on the school-age population and educational resource demand prediction.The difficulty is how to choose the most suitable model for the population development of Chongqing in many population predicting models,and setting the parameters of the model to calculate the results of school age population.It shows :(1)pre-school and school-aged population of preschools,primary schools,junior high schools and senior high schools begins to extremely increase in 2019,2022,2028 and 2031 respectively.(2)The trend of pre-school age population in Chongqing is "A" shape change.pre-school age population reaching the peak in 2022;reaching the least in 2016.The trend of primary schools population is reversed "N" shape change.primary schools population reaching the peak in 2027;reaching the least in 2020.junior high schools population is "M" shape change,junior high schools population reaching the peak in 2031;reaching the least in 2024.The trend of senior high schools is "W" shape change.junior high schools population reaching the peak in 2034;reaching the least in 2027.Then declines year by year with falling births which is impacted by the number of fertile woman and release of the potential force.According to prediction results of pre-school and school-aged population and changes of enrollment rate,numbers of students are predicted.(3)Primary schools,junior high schools and senior high schools 'educational resources is sufficient to deal with "two children a couple" implementation at the peak.However,pre-school education resources there is a huge gap,compared with the actual educational resources in 2015,in 2024 Pre-school staff gap for is 102984,The full-time teacher gap is 67930,School area gap is 576.43 million square meters,book volume gap of 283.93 million.According to the current standards of basic education nationally and regionally,demand of educational resources is predicted on the basis of prediction results of numbers of students.The gap between supply and demand of educational resources is calculated on the basis of comparison between educational resources of the peak and 2015.It shows that existing educational resource in preschools,primary schools,junior high schools and senior high schools is enough to cope with increasing demand for educational resource at times of peak numbers of students after implementation of the policy,while there is a huge gap in preschools.Depending on the results,following suggestions are put forward: trends and changes in numbers of students should be predicted timely to distribute educational resource locally and regionally.The scale of teachers should be enlarged moderately to relieve the shortage of teachers through various channels.Existing educational resource should be coordinated and deployed with an emphasis on preschool education.Funding for basic education should be increased to broaden the funding channels for education.The new study of this paper is: for the first time use The Development Model of Discrete Population in Multiple Areas" in the field of pre-school and school-aged population prediction.In this article,we select the region of Chongqing to carry out research,so let this study targeted.