The Fertility Desire Of Fertile People In Hunan Province Under The "Two-Child" Policy And Population Forecast

Objective : To investigate the fertility desire and its influencing factors of fertility groups under the "two-child" policy in Hunan Province,and statistical analysis of demographic factors other than the policy of single factors and multiple factors.Based on the results of the survey and other demographic data published by the state,a population prediction model was established to predict the total population and population structure of Hunan Province from 2017 to 2036 under the “two-child” policy.Finally,based on these influencing factors and the results of the population forecast,we put forward appropriate suggestions.We hope that the population structure and trends in China will develop in a more healthy direction.Methods 1.Taking Hunan Province as the research object,according to the stepwise distribution principle of economic level,Hunan Province is divided into economically developed regions,economically middle regions,and economically underdeveloped regions.From these three regions,one city is randomly selected for investigation.The economically developed city of Changsha,the economically middle Hengyang City,and the economically underdeveloped city of Huaihua,from which 1353 fertile populations were randomly selected as the survey targets;2.1353 fertility groups were willing to give birth Questionnaires and questionnaires were mainly related to basic personal conditions,second child's fertility intention,cost-utility factors,Easterlin's hypothesis,and fertility incentive measures.3.Data on the influencing factors of the survey were conducted using spss18.0,?2,and Logistic.Stepwise regression and statistical analysis;4.Based on the survey results and demographic data published by the country,use the age shift algorithm to predict the total population of Hunan Province in 2017-2021,using the PADIS-INT software for three types of 2022-2036.The total population of Hunan Province under different total fertility rates and the age structure of the population from 2017 to 2036 are predicted.Results Of the 1353 cases of fertile population surveyed,64.7% are expecting to have children and 2 children;61.0% are expected to have 1 male and 1 female,and 48.4% are between 3 to 5 years.There was no statistically significant difference in respondents' fertility intentions and the nature of household registration and household per capita monthly income(P>0.05);sex,age,occupation,education level,marital status,whether they were only children,whether they were migrants and if they were fertile There was a statistically significant difference in the fertility desire of the population(P<0.05).Each factor was introduced into the multi-factor Logistic stepwise regression.Whether or not there was a second child's desire to be a dependent variable,there were finally three factors that remained in the stepwise regression model: older age,female respondents,and non-only children(P all < 0.05).2.Using the age-shift algorithm to predict the total population of Hunan Province during 2017-2021 to show an upward trend.Using PADIS-INT software to predict the total population of Hunan Province from 2022 to 2036,the total population under the three scenarios will show a downward trend.Children's demographic factors are gradually declining from 2017 to 2025 under different scenarios within the forecast,but from 2026 onwards,the child population coefficient under the low programme continues to decline,and the youth population factor under the medium and high programmes It began to level off,and there was a slight recovery under the high program;the coefficient of the elderly population showed an increasing trend year by year under different scenarios during the forecast period,and the difference was not significant;the labor force changed little during the period 2017-2026 under different scenarios during the forecast period.From 2027,it continued to decline.Under the different scenarios of total dependency ratio during the forecast period,the upward trend in 2017-2026 will be more gradual,and the increase rate will increase after 2027;the dependency ratio of children and juveniles will decline from 2017 to 2026 under different scenarios during the forecast period,and then There has been a pick-up,of which the growth rate is faster under the high-level plan;the old-age dependency ratio has shown an upward trend compared with the different options during the forecast period,and the upward trend has been flattened from 2017 to 2026,and has started to increase since 2027.Conclusion 1.Under the "two-child" policy,people willing to give birth to two children accounted for 64.7% of the surveyed population.The factors affecting the fertility desire of the fertile population are gender,age,occupation,education level,marital status,Whether it is an only child or a migrant.2.In terms of population,the total population in 2017-2021 will show an upward trend,but it will show a declining trend from 2022.It shows that the “two-child” policy will indeed increase the birth rate and increase the total population in the early period,but in the later period The effect is not obvious and does not change the downward trend in population.In the forecast period,the child population coefficient is gradually declining,the elderly population coefficient is increasing year by year,the number of laborers is declining,and the total population dependency ratio is on the rise.The child dependency ratio is 2017-2026.It showed a declining trend and a rebound in the later period.The elderly population support ratio showed an upward trend compared with the three schemes,indicating that the effect of the “two-child” policy on the population structure of Hunan Province was not significant.