The Relationship Between Industrial Structure Upgrading And Employment In Resource-Based Cities

Most resource-based cities are too dependent on resources for urban development,and the industrial structure is too single.With the rapid pace of economic development and the non renewable nature of resources,economic development is at a bottleneck stage.In order to get rid of the dilemma of urban development stagnation,changing the traditional industrial structure and upgrading the industrial structure is the only way to achieve sustainable and healthy development of resource-based cities.And the upgrading of industrial structure is bound to affect the employment of primitive industries and new industries.Whether the upgrading of industrial structure and employment can form a positive interaction is the focus of research.Based on the panel data of 111 resource-based cities at the prefecture level and above in the past 2005-2016 years,this paper adopts a static and dynamic way to comprehensively analyze the employment effects of the upgrading of resource-based cities in the two aspects of resource-based cities as well as different urban types.Firstly,this paper uses the tomographic analysis method to construct the static panel model,and establishes three regression models by continuously adding factors affecting employment,and concludes that the upgrading of industrial structure has a positive effect on employment.That is,the industrial development in the tertiary industry upgrade at the same time,resulting in more jobs,the increase in the number of labor force is greater than the industrial structure upgrade and reduce the employment of the first and second industries.Secondly,according to the classification standards issued by the State Council in 2013 on the national sustainable development plan for resource based cities(2013-2020),the resource-based cities are divided into four categories:mature,growth,recession and regeneration.Because all kinds of urban data are first order and single integer,they are not suitable for the traditional VAR model,so the modified VEC model is adopted in this paper.For the four types of resource-based cities,the dynamic model of industrial structure upgrading and employment is tested by stationarity test,cointegration testimpulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis.The results show that different types of resource-based cities have different dynamic relationships between the degree of industrial structure upgrading and employment.Among them,the upgrading of industrial structure in mature,growing and regenerative cities has a positive effect on employment,which is consistent with the conclusion of resource-based overall.while the declining cities has a negative effect on employment.In addition,the upgrading of industrial structure in four types of cities has a significant contribution to employment.The contribution of growth cities is relatively low.The improvement of employment situation will not significantly change the upgrading of industrial structure.At the end of the paper,according to the conclusions of previous studies,four suggestions are given to achieve coordinated development of industrial upgrading and employment growth in resource-based cities:We should pay attention to the cultivation of comprehensive quality of labor force in the resource exhausted cities and the re employment assistance for unemployed workers,while looking for alternative industries;Other cities should pay attention to the extension of industrial value chain and vigorously develop the third industry.