| Recent years,population aging effect on the evolution of the manufacturing structure is affected by the government,experts and scholars have been the focus of attention and debate.First of all,this paper analyzes the structure and manufacturing on the country's aging population situation and development trend,compared with other countries,and summarizes the characteristics of aging and manufacturing structure in China.Secondly,this paper comprehensively analyzes the transmission mechanism of the aging effect on manufacturing structure,and discusses how aging affects on manufacturing structure evolution;Finally,based on provincial-level data from 2000-2016,this paper respectively by spatial geographic distance matrix,space economic distance matrix and spatial information distance matrix,build on manufacturing industry structure and the aging of the population spatial durbin model,to study the national-level and the eastern,central and western three areas level population aging effects on upgrade of manufacturing structure and rationalization of manufacturing structure.This paper get the following main conclusions: firstly,based on the national-level and regional-level data,the empirical results show that the aging of our country upgrade of manufacturing structure affect the total effect of showed strong positive correlation,an ageing population are significant for upgrade of manufacturing structure of adjacent provinces.Population aging could encourage the province manufacturing industry structure to more advanced direction,is not conducive to the fundamentals of neighboring provinces.Secondly,from regional level,because of the aging of three regional labor productivity and the influence degree of the aged industry,eastern,central and western regions is advantageous to the upgrade of manufacturing structure effect is a little difference,than of the aging of the central region of east and west aging manufacturing industry,the upgrade of manufacturing structure of the central region promote the cause of the weak is the central region population outflow is overmuch,make enterprises don't have enough talent reserve transitions to technology-intensive industry,so the aging effect on the upgrade of manufacturing structure was not significant.Thirdly,population aging does not favor the rationalization of manufacturing structure,effects of an ageing population by directly hinder the rationalization of manufacturing structure;National central,eastern,will damage the rationalization of manufacturing structure through indirect effect,indirect effect to the western region in the western region rationalization of manufacturing structure,but was not significant,so from the national level and regional level,an ageing population will hinder the rationalization of manufacturing structure,in addition,by comparing the spatial correlation coefficient,the information from the neighboring provinces has obvious relevance,shows that provinces in the similar level of the informatization of manufacturing,population aging have significant spillover effects on rationalization of manufacturing structure.Combining this article conclusion,finally gives the corresponding policy recommendations. |
PDF Full Text Request