Research On The Asymmetric Effect Of China's Fiscal Policy On Industrial Structure

As the Chinese economy has entered a new norm,overcapacity and insufficient effective supply have become increasingly prominent,and the downward pressure on the economy has increased.In order to adapt to the new normal economy,the Chinese government proposed a structural reform on the supply side,focusing on solving the problem of incompatibility between the economic structure,the industrial structure and the current new requirements for economic development.As the main means for the governm ent to implement macro-control,the fiscal policy can make up for the imperfection of the market adjustment mechanism and the limited effectiveness of the adjustment.Because the effect of fiscal policy regulation depends on changes in the external environment,it is more practical to consider changes in the external environment when studying the impact of fiscal policy on the industrial structure.This paper studies the asymmetric effects of fiscal policy on industrial structure from two perspectives of different economic environments and different policy positions.It is based on the evolution of industrial structure and fiscal policy asymmetry theory,the status quo of the development of the three major industries,and the mechanism of the role of fiscal policy on industrial structure,then constructed a panel threshold model for empirical analysis.The empirical results show that:First,the influence of fiscal policy on the industrial structure under different economic growth rates is asymmetrical.Among them,the economic expenditure has a greater inhibitory effect on the industrial structure during the period of low economic growth than during the period of rapid economic growth;the promotion effect of the people's livelihood expenditure on the industrial structure is the largest in the economy's medium-term growth period,followed by the period of rapid economic growth,and the smallest in the economy's low-speed growth period;the turnover tax revenue has a greater promotion effect on the industrial structure during the period of rapid economic growth than on the suppression effect of low economic growth period;the income tax revenue has a greater inhibitory effect on the industrial structure during the period of low economic growth than on the promotion effect of rapid economic growth period.Second,the influence of fiscal policy on industrial structure under different policy positions is asymmetrical.Among them,the economic expenditure under the squeezing government spending position has a greater inhibitory effect on the industrial structure than the promotion effect under the expansionary position;the maintenance expenditure has a smaller promoting effect on the industrial structure under the squeezing government expenditure position than the expansionary position;the turnover tax revenue has a greater promoting effect on the industrial structure under the squeezing government tax position than the expansionary position;the income tax revenue under the expansionary government tax position has a smaller inhibitory effect on the industrial structure than the promotion effect under the tightening position.Based on the above empirical conclusions,the following suggestions are put forward:first,the government must fully understand the asymmetric nature of fiscal policy to regulate industrial structure,select and use fiscal policy tools in a targeted manner;second,it is necessary to increase financial support for educational technology,rationally allocate educational resources according to the differences in regional economic conditions and establish industrial upgrading R&D funds;finally,the government must formulate comprehensive tax preferential policies and regulations,improve and innovate tax incentives to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial stru cture.