The Relationship Between Labor Force Participation Rate Of Countries Along "the Belt And Road" And Economic And Trade Development Of China

The "The Belt and Road"("B&R")is a further deepening for China to open up towards the outside world.And it is a new opportunity for China to enhance international industrial transfer,promote cross-regional cooperation,and accelerate the construction of an open economic system.It is of great significance for the economic recovery and development of countries along the line.With the development of the "B&R",the economic and trade cooperation of China with countries along the line have become increasingly close.The labor force has become one of the most important production factors and the demand for human resources is increasing.The resulting labor market linkage and radiation effects are gradually emerging.At the same time,the advancement of globalization has made the cross-border movement of labor factors frequent,and a large number of laborers have entered the world labor market through international trade and other ways,which has a profound impact on the world and national labor markets.However,the national conditions of each country are different from the level of economic and trade development,and there are also significant differences in the labor market system and human resource development strategies.The labor force participation rate is an important indicator for both employment and labor markets.Through discussing the relationship between the labor participation rate of the countries along the "B&R" and economic and trade development in China,this paper provides a reference for China to strengthen its interaction with the world economy and the world labor market through the "B&R".This paper takes 69 countries along the "B&R",which includes China,as the research object,and adopts the combination of empirical and theoretical,quantitative and qualitative combination and spatial visualization analysis.Furthermore,by using the statistics of the World Bank,the International Labor Organization,the United Nations Commodity Trade Database,the International Trade Center database and other institutions and organizations about labor force participation rate and economic and trade development,the evolution of the spatial and temporal pattern the development of labor force participation rateand economy in countries along the "B&R" through 1997-2017 is analyzed.On this basis,the Granger causality test model of economic development along the "B&R" countries and China is constructed,and the relationship between them is analyzed.Finally,based on the relationship between labor force participation rate and economic and trade development,Chinese foreign investment and trade adjustment focus and future economic and trade cooperation key countries will be looked forward to and propose some proposals for China to further promote the "B&R".The full text is divided into six parts:The first part is about the introduction.The research background,theoretical significance and practical significance are explained.And the domestic and international research on the relationship between labor force participation rate and economic and trade development based on the "B&R" are sorted out.The research content of the paper,and determine the research methods and technical routes are summarized.The second part is about concepts and theoretical basis.The "B&R",labor force participation rate,demographic dividend,economic and trade development are defined.The theoretical basis of labor force participation rate and economic and trade development is summarized,comprising labor supply theory,labor demand theory,labor force participation rate and economic cycle theory and comparative advantage theory.The third part is about the analysis of the spatial differentiation pattern of labor force participation rate in the countries along the "B&R".From the perspectives of overall labor force participation rate,gender-specific labor force participation rate and demographic dividend level,this paper analyzes the characteristics of labor force participation and spatial differentiation in the countries along the "B&R" through 1997-2017.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The spatial differentiation pattern of labor force participation rate of countries along the "B&R" in 1997-2017 is relatively small,but the regional differences are significant,and most countries along the line have higher labor force participation rates.There are only some countries,in terms of Yemen and Jordan,whose the labor force participation rate still needs to be strengthened;(2)The average labor force participation rate of men and women of countries along the "B&R" through 1997-2017 is lower than the world level.Andthe male labor force participation rate is much higher than the female labor force participation rate,which indicates that men still dominate the labor market,but the status of women in the labor market has gradually increased steadily;(3)The demographic dividend levels of countries and regions along the "B&R" have not changed significantly through1997-2017.The change is between 60% and 70%,which is at a higher level than the world level.In addition,the regional differences are significant,which is shown as the demographic dividend levels of Southeast Asia,South Asia and West Asia are more polarized.(4)The labor force participation rate and demographic dividend of most countries along the "B&R" are at a relatively high level,which means they have obvious labor participation advantages as well.The fourth part is about the spatial pattern analysis of the economic and trade development level of the countries along the "B&R".The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The economic development level of the countries along the "B&R" is quite different.The economic development level of the countries in the central and Eastern Europe is relatively high.The Western Asia and North Africa also include high income countries and middle and high income countries,but most countries in Western Asia,Southeast Asia,South Asia and Central Asia are relatively backward in economic development.(2)China’s direct investment towards countries along the line has increased greatly from 1997 to 2017,mainly concentrated on developing economies,but the proportion of direct investment in developed economies along the line showed a clear upward trend;(3)During the period of 1997-2017,the total volume of import and export trade between China and 68 countries along the line show a significant growth,among which the growth of total trade with Mongolia,Russia,South Asia and Southeast Asian countries is the most obvious;(4)China’s exports to countries along the"B&R" are mainly used machinery.And the transportation equipment,the finished products mainly classified by materials are mainly manufactured products,and the structure of export commodities is less changed.The structure of imported goods from China to countries along the "B&R" is complex.Mongolian,Central Asia and West Asia region mainly focus on fuel and primary products such as fossil fuels,lubricants and related substances,expect non-edible raw materials.However,Southeast Asia and Central and Eastern Europe mainly exportindustrial products such as machinery and transportation equipment.South Asia mainly exports industrial products such as finished products mainly classified by materials;(5)Countries along the "B&R" have higher trade reliance degree than China.In special,South Asia,Central and Eastern Europe,North Africa have lower trade reliance degree to China,and most countries situated in Mongolia-Russia,Southeast Asia,West Asia,Central Asian countries maintain a high level trade dependence to China.The fifth part is about the analysis of the relationship between labor force participation rate of countries along the "B&R" and Chinese economic and trade development.(1)Based on the Granger causality test method of panel data,the causal relationship between the labor force participation rate of the countries along the line and China’s economic and trade development is analyzed.The labor force participation rate of the countries along The Belt and Road is directly related to its own and China’s economic development.At the same time,the trade reliance degree between countries along the line and China,the degree of openness of countries along the line are indirectly related to its own labor force participation rate.(2)Based on the qualitative analysis,the impact of labor force participation rate of countries along the line on the Chinese investment is analyzed,by using the scale of investment from China towards countries along the line and commercial structure of international trade.Most countries which have a large scale of Chinese direct investment and commercial products have a high level of demographic dividends and labor force participation rates.However,the scale of Chinese direct investment and import and export commodities with the countries along the line is still at a low level,in terms of Cambodia,Bahrain,Oman,Georgia,Brunei,Azerbaijan,Uzbekistan,Myanmar,Belarus,etc.(3)Based on the relationship between labor force participation rate of countries along the line and Chinese economic and trade development,five typical countries with higher levels of labor force participation rate but still need to strengthen trade relations with China and economic development level are selected in order to look forward China’s future economic and trade cooperation priorities.In special,China is suitable for Oman to strengthen economic and trade cooperation in the fields of telecommunications,infrastructure,commerce,tourism;China is suitable for Georgia tostrengthen economic and trade cooperation through agriculture and tourism;China is suitable for Brunei to process the economic development and trade cooperation between the middle and lower reaches,agriculture,tourism,and high-tech industries;China is suitable for Uzbekistan to strengthen economic and trade cooperation in infrastructure construction,agriculture,railways,and new energy;China is suitable for Belarus to strengthen machinery manufacturing,agriculture,electronics industry,none Economic and trade cooperation in the field of electrical technology and IT industries.The sixth part is about the conclusion of the paper and the enlightenment for further deepening of the "B&R" in China,comprising: strengthening the diversification of foreign economic and trade cooperation,playing the role of the main body of enterprises;attaching importance to the level of labor force participation rate of countries along the line,adjusting the structure of foreign trade and investment direction;complementing advantages of China and countries along the line,injecting new impetus into bilateral economic and trade;driving countries along the line to actively build the "B&R" and deepen their own labor advantages.