Spatio-Temporal Coupling Relationship Between Economy And Population In Key Developed Areas Of Shandong Province

In 2007,the Ministry of National Construction promulgated the State Council's Opinions on the Compilation of the National Main Functional Areas Planning,which requires that the compilation of the National Main Functional Areas be completed as soon as possible.Subsequently,the State Council issued the Notice on the Planning of National Main Functional Areas,which is the first national territorial space development plan in China.In 2013,the Shandong Provincial People's Government issued the "Planning for the Main Functional Areas of Shandong Province",pointing out that the layout of the main functional areas of Shandong Province should be basically formed by 2020.Shandong Province is a large province of China's economy and population.As an important economic and population development area in Shandong Province,the key developed areas have the function of promoting rapid economic development and improving the ability of gathering population,and become an important economic and population-intensive area in Shandong Province.Under this background,this paper takes the key developed areas in Shandong Province as the research area,since 2006,through the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods,analyses the current situation of economic and population development in key developed areas.Correctly grasps the characteristics of the temporal and spatial evolution of the coupling relationship between economy and population,and explores the problems and influencing factors of the coordinated development of the coupling between economy and population,based on the analysis results.The countermeasures of coordinated development between economy and population in key developed areas of Shandong Province are put forward.This research is divided into seven chapters: Chapter one is the introduction,which mainly introduces the research background,research significance,research progress at home and abroad,research methods and research contents;Chapter two is related conceptsand theoretical basis,which introduces related concepts and basic theories;Chapter three is the development status of economy and population in key developed areas of Shandong Province,which respectively describes the current situation of economic development and population development.Chapter four is the analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of the coupling relationship between economy and population in key developed areas of Shandong Province,using comprehensive development index model,coupling degree model,coordination degree model and inconsistency index to analyze the economic development level,population development level,economic and population coupling of key developed areas of Shandong Province.Chapter five is about the influencing factors of the coupling relationship between economy and population in key developed areas of Shandong Province,including natural factors,traffic conditions,investment scale and historical culture.Chapter six is the problems existing in the coordinated development of economy and population in key developed areas of the province are discussed,and relevant countermeasures are put forward.Chapter seven is concludes and prospects,and summarizes the conclusions and deficiencies of this study.Through the above research,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)As a whole,the economy and population of the key developed areas in Shandong Province are developing in a more and more balanced way.The aggregation of total economic and population is as follows: From 2006 to 2016,the distribution of total economic volume of key developed areas in Shandong Province experienced a process from decentralization to agglomeration,forming two major agglomeration districts: one is part of the counties and urban areas of key provincial development zones in Jinan Metropolitan Circle centered on Tianqiao District and Huaiyin District;the other is the provincial focus of Lunan Economic Zone centered on Rencheng District and Tengzhou District.Development Zone and some counties and municipalities of Donglonghai National Key Developed Zone.Southwest Shandong is the main population concentration area.Since 2006,a large number of people have been gathered,and a linear pattern of population distribution has been formed from Heze,Jining,Zaozhuang to Linyi.(2)The comprehensive development level of economy and population in the key developed areas of Shandong Province is gradually rising with time,but the gap betweenregions is gradually widening because of the different development speed.The number of areas with high level of economic development has increased and relatively concentrated in space,while the number of areas with low level of economic development has decreased.The overall level of population development has been continuously improving.Higher levels of population development have appeared in key provincial development zones in Jinan metropolitan area,in key provincial development zones in Lunan economic zone and in key national development zones in DongLonghai,but the spatial distribution pattern of population development level has not changed much since 2006.(3)In terms of time evolution,the coupling degree between economy and population in key developed areas of Shandong Province is decreasing,and the interaction between them is weakening.Coupling degree and coupling coordination degree are not consistent.It is found that the degree of economic and population coupling coordination is growing steadily,the level of economic and population development is rising synchronously,and the type of coupling coordination is gradually changing from maladjustment to coordinated development,and from transition to coordinated development.(4)In terms of spatial evolution,the coupling degree between economy and population in key developed areas of Shandong Province fluctuated greatly from 2006 to2016.Especially in the provincial key developed areas of Jinan metropolitan area,the coupling degree between economy and population changed greatly,and the interaction degree between economy and population became smaller.From 2006 to 2011,the provincial key development zones in Jinan metropolitan area have obviously improved the degree of coupling and coordination,forming a vertical agglomeration area with Tianqiao District,Huaiyin District,Licheng District,Zhangqiu District,Zouping District,Laicheng District and Xintai District as a whole;and the provincial key development zones in Lunan Economic Zone are mainly Mudan District,Juye District,Rencheng District and Yanzhou District,with the economic and population coupling association.The coordination degree of economic and population coupling in Tengzhou and Lanshan District is the highest in Donglonghai National Key Development Zone,while that in Junan District and Donggang District is one grade higher than that in 2006,reaching a slight imbalance.From 2011 to2016,the areas with obvious improvement in coupling and coordination degree are mainly:Jinan Metropolitan Area Provincial Key Development Zone,Dongchangfu District has become the region with the first economic and population coupling and coordination degree into the barely coordinated type.In addition,the coordination degree of economic and population coupling in Decheng District,Chiping District and Qihe District has been upgraded to a level of slight imbalance;in Donglonghai National Key Development Zone,Tengzhou District and Lanshan District have become the "core cities" in the region,and the coordination degree of economic and population coupling has reached a barely coordinated type.The coordination degree of economic and population coupling in central,Eastern and Luozhuang district of Zaozhuang City has been upgraded by one level compared with 2011,from moderate imbalance to slight imbalance,which shows that the coordination of economic and population development is increasing.The spatial distribution of the matching degree between economy and population shows certain regularity.The provincial key development zones in Jinan metropolitan area are mainly population lag and economic development is faster than population;in the provincial key development zones in the Lunan economic zone,Heze and Jining show different types of development,Heze is mainly economic lag and Jining is mainly population lag;Donglonghai national key development zones coexist with various types,such as population lag,economic lag and population and economic association.In the analysis of spatial autocorrelation,the economy and population of key development zones in Shandong Province are positively correlated,and the areas with similar attributes are clustered together.With the change of time,the Moran index increases,which shows that the spatial agglomeration is increasing.Local spatial autocorrelation shows the agglomeration distribution of regions with high level of coordinated development of economy and population and regions with the same level of development,and the number of agglomerations of regions with low level of coordinated development decreases.The areas with better coordinated development of economic and population coupling have changed from Jinan(Zhangqiu District,Licheng District,Tianqiao District,Huaiyin District)and Jining,Zaozhuang(Tengzhou District,Zoucheng District,Rencheng District)to the West(Dongchang District Government),to the East(Lanshan District and Donggang District).The distribution of low-value areas is relativelyscattered.In 2006,they were distributed in Heze Mudan District,Dongming District and Juye County,forming a transverse continuous area.In 2016,they were distributed in Heze Dongming District,Laiwu Gangcheng District and Zibo Huantai District.(5)The coupling relationship between economy and population in key developed areas of Shandong Province is affected by many factors.The difference of natural conditions such as topography,soil and water resources,mineral resources and so on in key developed areas of Shandong Province affects the distribution of population and economic construction;the improvement of transportation lines greatly promotes the development of economy and population in key developed areas of Shandong Province,and promotes their evolution towards a more coordinated direction;the size of investment directly affects the construction of economy and population;the historical and cultural background and the development of population in key developed areas of Shandong Province.The level of coordinated development of regional economy and population coupling is closely related.Cities with profound historical and cultural background also have a higher level of coordinated development of economic and population coupling.(6)Among the problems and countermeasures of the coordinated development of economy and population,there are some problems in the coordinated development of economy and population in key developed areas of Shandong Province,such as the mismatch of economy and population concentration,the disparity of comprehensive development level between regions,the asynchrony of coupling and coordination,and the lack of strong radiation-driven role of "leading cities".In this regard,we should rationally allocate population and actively guide population flow;strengthen regional cooperation to promote cross-regional economic and population flow;focus on building economic-population "core cities" in each region to give full play to trickle-down effect;improve transportation facilities and establish economic-population linkage mechanism.