Ageing And Upgrading Of Industrial Structure

According to the standards set by the United Nations on ageing,political economy officially entered an aging society in 2000.By the end of 2017,China had reached 11.39 per cent of the population over the age of 65,and 15.9 per cent of the population was dependent on older persons.The increasing aging of the population has a serious impact on the Chinese economy,and the development of industry is closely related to the age structure of the population.Therefore,the Chinese government has proposed to actively promote the development of Chinese industry in the middle and high end while adapting to the new normal of the economy.Gradually increase the dual support role of the service industry and strategic emerging industries.Based on this background,this paper makes use of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to study the impact of aging on industrial structure upgrading.The theoretical analysis is mainly from the theory of population transition and the discussion of industrial structure upgrading in Marx's capital theory,and the discussion of the relevant theory of industrial structure by Western scholars.The mechanism of aging affecting the upgrading of the industrial structure is comprehensively elaborated from the perspectives of labor supply,demand change,and capital supply.The empirical analysis uses data from 31 provinces and cities in China from 2005-2017,and takes into account the continuous process of industrial structure upgrading.Dynamic panel model,Under the conditions of controlling the per capita income,education level,urbanization,foreign direct investments the degree of government intervention,and scientific and technological innovation and other variables,the system GMM analysis method was used to study the impact of ageing on the upgrading of the industrial structure and to test the robustness of the model.The study found that the aging of our country is an inverted U-type effect on the upgrading of industrial structure,that is,when the degree is low,with the development of aging,it will gradually promote the upgrading of industrial structure,and when the aging degree deepens,it will inhibit the upgrading of industrial structure.Finally,based on the empirical research,some conclusions are drawn,and some policy suggestions are put forward on how to further upgrade the industrial structure in the context of aging.