Demographic Dividend Research On Sub-Saharan Africa And Related Country Case Analvsis

Population issue is the core of socio-economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa.As we all know,Africa is the continent with the youngest population in the world.In the future,the growth of the world's population will be mainly concentrated in this region.When the fertility rate keeps falling and the number of working population exceeds that of other populations,the region may obtain a "Demographic dividend".A large number of young people is the important resources in the economic prosperity.This is likely to become a new impetus for economic development in Africa,but this factor may also pose a huge challenge.It depends on whether the state can control fertility and mortality by political,economic and demographic policies,provide necessary health and education institutions to accumulating human capital,provide sufficient employment opportunities for a large number of working people,and then turn this potential into practical advantage.This article based on relevant theories of population transition and data from the population division of the United Nations.It illustrates the way in which demographic dividend affect economic development,and analyzes the time and characteristics of demographic dividend window of Sub-Saharan Africa and other regions of the world.Firstly,the article reviews people's understanding of the relationship between population and economic development.From the "Malthusian trap" to the "New economic growth theory" in the 1980s,people's understanding of this question has also changed a lot.Malthus believes that the growth of population and material are not synchronized,so the population should be limited to maintain the balance.The"New economic growth theory" regards technological and human capital as endogenous variable,and regards human capital accumulation as a source of economic growth.Secondly,it illustrates the demographic dividend window of Sub-Saharan African countries.According to this article,Sub-Saharan Africa is the last region in the world to have a demographic dividend window period,and the region with the largest working-age population during that period.The time to enter the demographic dividend window in Sub-Saharan Africa is about 2065 and will last until 2100.Thirdly,it describes the political,economic and social conditions of the countries in this region,analyzes the constraints of Nigeria and South Africa to obtain the demographic dividend,it believes that Sub-Saharan African countries have difficulty in obtaining demographic dividend due to the lack of state capacity.Finally,this article believes that the international institutions can affect domestic politics by influencing the distribution of interests among different social groups,and compel the government to reform,then enhance the capacity of the state.The demographic dividend theory particularly emphasized the positive effect of youth population expansion on economic growth,but it also emphasized that this is an insufficient condition for obtaining the demographic dividend.Because the youth population is not a natural productive force,if the state does not have the ability to create sufficient employment,these people will become a burden,and trigger off the social unrest.Although Sub-Saharan Africa is currently the only continent with the potential advantage of demographic transition,we cannot say that they have the ability to make it come true.The reasons can be roughly summarized into the following three points:First,the slow decline of fertility rate and the lack of public resources,such as medical care and education are not conducive to the accumulation of human resources;Second,the unitary economic structure is not conducive to financial stability and employment expansion;Third,the government's insufficient administrative capacity and low efficiency cannot provide a good political and economic environment for obtaining demographic dividend.To this end,Sub-Saharan African countries should pay full attention to their institution building,create a good political and economic environment in the following four aspects:First,reduce fertility rate and improve population quality by public health programs;Second,enact laws to increase female's education rate and reduce early marriage;Third,improve the regional business environment and create opportunities for attracting investment;Fourth,establish a social pension security system and extend the window of demographic dividend.Otherwise,the potential population resources will become the population burden,and the country will fall into a series of survival crises before it has fully developed.