Study On The Impact Of Population Agglomeration On Regional Economic Development

Population agglomeration is one of the hot issues in demography.Due to natural conditions,resource endowments,transportation facilities,economic differences and other factors,the spatial distribution of population presents a significant difference in clustering and thinning,that is,population agglomeration has formed in some areas.Population agglomeration makes the densely populated areas have more working-age population,continue the regional demographic dividend,and alleviate the aging problems.As the main body of the development of social agglomeration economy,spatial agglomeration of people is bound to have an important impact on the economic development of the agglomeration area.Therefore,in recent years,how population affects economic development has gradually become the focus of scholars’ research.Due to the large gap in regional economic development,the impact of population agglomeration on it is bound to be different.This paper uses QuantileRegression to analyze the difference in the impact of population agglomeration on different regions from an empirical perspective.Before the empirical analysis,it analyzes the current situation of China’s population and economic development.In terms of population,the spatial agglomeration characteristics of China’s population are identified by using the quarter graph,global Moran I index and local Moran I index.The results show that the spatial agglomeration characteristics of China’s population are remarkable,and the agglomeration areas are mainly in the eastern and southeastern coastal areas.Further quantitative analysis of population agglomeration degree of Chinese provinces based on JJD index proves that China’s population spatial distribution has significant characteristics of agglomeration.Finally,through calculating the provincial population bring-up ratio,the employment population mean by education period,the urbanization level and the proportion of non-agricultural employment and these indexes ranking,it found that there is a big gap among China’s provinces population bring-up ratio,employment population mean by education period,the population urbanization level and the proportion of non-agricultural employment.On the whole,the economically developed areas have high employment population mean by education period,the urbanization level and the proportion of non-agricultural employment and low population bring-up ratio;Economically backward areas have lower average number of years of education of the employed population,urbanization level and the proportion of non-agricultural employment population and a higher dependency ratio.In terms of economy,Gini coefficient,Standard Deviation and Coefficient of Variation are used to analyze the economic development differences among different provinces in China.The results show that no matter income,GDP or per capita GDP is used to measure the economic development gap in China,it is concluded that there is a big gap in China’s economic development.Then by calculating the population and economic unbalance index of each province in China,we find that the spatial coupling degree of population and economic agglomeration is higher in China.After describing the current situation of China’s population and economic development,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of China’s population agglomeration on regional economic development.Taking the provincial panel data of China from 2000 to 2015 as the sample,this paper uses the quartile regression method to empirically analyze the impact of population agglomeration on regional economic development level and regional economic growth.The empirical results are as follows:(1)population agglomeration plays a significant role in promoting regional economic development and promoting regional economic growth.(2)the higher level of economic development,the smaller the role of population agglomeration in improving the level of economic development;the lower the level of economic development,the greater the role of population agglomeration in improving the level of economic development.(3)the faster the economic growth,the greater the role of population agglomeration in promoting economic growth,and the slower the economic growth,the smaller the role of population agglomeration in promoting economic growth.(4)China’s economic development shows a trend of convergence.We can divide China’s provinces into four types.The first type is the region with high level of economic development and rapid economic growth.The second type is the area with higher level of economic development and slower economic growth.The third type is the low level of economic development,rapid economic growth in the region;The fourth type is the area with low level of economic development and slow economic growth.According to the empirical results of this paper,population agglomeration has the most positive impact on the economic development of the third type of provinces,followed by the first and the fourth type of provinces,and has the least positive impact on the second type of provinces.Finally,according to the conclusion of this paper and combined with the current situation of China’s population and economic development,this paper puts forward to some policy suggestions,such as introducing agricultural talents to improve agricultural productivity,changing the labor force from agriculture to non-agricultural industries,and attracting labor force by attracting investment and creating employment opportunities.