Study On Human Capital Effects Based On Bayesian Quantile Regression Models

The era of knowledge economy has arrived,the importance of human capital is self-evident.Abundant human resources is a prominent advantage of China.At the same time,the level of human capital in China is also continuously improving.However,in this process,it is not clear whether the role of human capital on individuals and China’s economic and social development has been fully played and whether the value of human capital has been fully realized.Therefore,this paper comprehensively studies the influence effect of human capital on different objects,including the externality of human capital,the influence effect of human capital on industrial structure upgrading and the spatial spillover effect of human capital on prefecture-level city economic growth.It is hoped to promote the development of China’s human capital in the direction of better investment,more reasonable distribution and function more significantly,so as to meet the needs of high-quality economic development.(1)Quantitative analysis of human capital externality and the impact of city size on it.Based on the CHIP data in 2013,this paper adopts the Bayesian quantile regression method to study how the labor force at different income levels benefits from human capital externalities,and discusses the impact of city size on human capital externalities at different quantiles.It is found that the labor force with different income level obtains different wage premium from the increase of urban human capital.For the labor force with higher income level,the increase of urban human capital level brings higher wage premium.Secondly,the impact of city size on human capital externality is different at different quantiles.The difference of human capital externality between megacities and small and medium-sized cities is more obvious at higher quantile,while the difference of human capital externality between big cities and small and medium-sized cities increases with the increase of quantile level.(2)To measure the impact of human capital on industrial structure upgrading,and investigate the moderating effect of urbanization on the intensity of the relationship between the two.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in the Chinese mainland from 2005 to 2017,a Bayesian panel quantile regression model was established for analysis.Compared with mean regression estimation results,Bayesian quantile regression provides more abundant and more comprehensive information.The estimation results at different quantile levels show that the improvement of human capital level can accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure,but the estimation results of parameters at different quantiles have some heterogeneity.In the region with higher industrial structure level,the improvement of human capital has a greater positive and stable promoting effect on the upgrading of industrial structure.As the quantile level gradually increases,the urbanization regression coefficient shows a linear growth trend,that is,the promotion effect of urbanization on the upgrading of industrial structure is greater in the regions with higher industrial structure.In regions with different levels of industrial structure,the moderating effect of urbanization on the relationship between human capital and industrial structure upgrading is different.(3)To explore the spatial spillover effect of human capital on economic growth at different levels of distribution differences.Based on the cross-section data of 301prefecture-level cities in China,the Moran’s scatter plot of human capital and economic growth is firstly drawn,and the spatial autocorrelation of human capital and economic growth is tested respectively.The test results show that there is a non-negligible spatial autocorrelation between human capital and economic growth.Secondly,Bayesian quantile regression method was used to estimate the parameters of the established spatial Durbin model and decompose the spatial effects.The results show that at 0.25,0.5 and 0.75,the improvement of human capital level has a significant positive impact on the economic growth of prefecture-level cities,and their sizes are different.However,the spatial spillover effect of human capital on the three quantiles is not significant.Therefore,while accelerating the promotion of human capital level,China should actively explore how to make human capital spillover effect between prefecture-level cities,so as to give full play to its due role.