The Impact Of China's Population Structure Transformation On The Urban Housing Demand

Since China's housing market was marketized in 1998,China's housing market has been developing rapidly,residential sales area and sales price have been rising rapidly,which has caused a great economic pressure on residents to buy houses.In view of the extremely hot housing market,many scholars have studied from the perspective of land finance,money and interest rate theory and expected speculation theory,while the population is the consumer subject of the market,housing is a service for people,and the population has different housing needs at different stages of its life cycle,and the population structure determines the housing demand to a large extent.At the same time,the implementation of the policy of "universal two-child" will make a significant change in the population age structure in the coming decades.Therefore,in this policy context,it is necessary to study the impact of China's population structure on housing demand,and to predict the impact of future demographic changes on housing demand,which will promote the healthy development of housing market.Firstly,this paper summarizes the research results of domestic and foreign scholars from three perspectives:population natural structure,population social structure and population demographic structure.Then it introduces the theory of population structure and housing demand.Then it analyzes the changes of population structure and housing system in our country.In the empirical analysis part,based on the 31 provinces and cities' panel data in 2003-2015,this article respectively analyzes the population naturals tructure,population social structure,population demographic structure and population structure' affect on housing demand.Finally,according to the population prediction results from 2015 to 2050,the influence of population age change on housing demand is analyzed in China in the coming decades.In this paper,the following conclusions are drawn:children dependency ratio,old dependency ratio,average household size,average educational year,the second industry employees rate,urbanization rate and population flow rate are correlated with housing demand significantly,among which,children's dependency ratio,average household size,population flow rate and housing demand are correlated negatively.There is a positive correlation between old dependency dependency ratio and housing demand.This paper argues that this is the result of the welfare housing system,which has caused the elderly population in China who got the ability to subsidize their children to.purchase houses,this effect will not sustainable for a long time.? The urbanization rate has little effect on housing demand,and the rate of population flow rate is negatively related to housing demand.This paper argues that it is due to the excessive ratio of housing price income and household registration system,which leads to the failure of permanent residents and floating population' potential housing demand translate into effective housing demand.?The policy of "universal two-child" will increase the number of children and working-age population in China in the coming decades,and slow down the aging process of the population,but it cannot change the number of elderly population.At the same time,this paper holds that the demand for housing in China will continue to increase by 2030,due to the continued increase of elderly dependency ratio.Finally,this paper makes three suggestions according to the research conclusion.