A Study On The Population Structure And Its Impact On Housing Prices Under The Nationwide Two-child Policy

Since January 1,2016,China has implemented a comprehensive two-child policy.The child dependency ratio will change significantly.At the same time,with the development of economy and the improvement of people’s living standards,the average life expectancy of the population will increase year by year,and the elderly dependency ratio will also increase.The combined effect of the two policies will inevitably lead to the change of the age structure of the population.The prediction of this change trend is very important for the evaluation of the efect of policy implementation.At the same time,China’s housing market has experienced a process from urban welfare housing distribution and rationing system to market-oriented.With the development of economy and the improvement of people’s living standards,the demand for rigid and improved housing will change with the change of population structure,which will lead to the change of housing prices.However,housing is a livelihood issue,housing prices should be coordinated with the macroeconomic level and maintained at a basically stable level.Housing price is the result of multiple factors,which has been deeply studied by academic circles.However,the research on the impact of population structure changes on housing price caused by the new comprehensive two-child policy is still in the exploratory stage.During the period of population structure changes,the question of what interaction mechanism exists between population structure and housing price deserves further study.On the basis of previous studies,this paper systematically and deeply explores this issue.Firstly,from the perspective of demography,this paper calculates the influencing factors and the possible fertility rate of the two-child fertility intention of the population of childbearing age under the comprehensive two-child policy through a questionnaire survey in five provinces,and calculates the change trend of the total fertility rate based on the total fertility model.Secondly,drawing lessons from the research results of scholars,the main influencing factors of house price are screened.Taking house price as dependent variable,population structure as independent variable,and residents’expectation of house price,per capita GDP,consumption level and urbanization rate as control variables,the panel data model is constructed to study the impact of population structure on house price.Finally,based on the changing trend of the child dependency ratio,the elderly dependency ratio and the control variables in the future population age structure under the comprehensive two-child policy,the future trend of house price change and the contribution rate of population structure to house price change are predicted.First,the comprehensive two-child policy delayed the arrival of the peak population,the child dependency ratio increased first,then decreased,and finally tended to be stable.The total dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio showed an upward trend.In Shaanxi,Hubei and Shandong provinces around 2030,the elderly dependency ratio will exceed the child dependency ratio and continue to rise.Secondly,the child dependency ratio is negatively correlated with housing price,while the elderly dependency ratio is positively correlated with housing price.Finally,according to the predicted evolution trend of population structure,this paper predicts that in terms of population age structure,housing prices will no longer be able to rise rapidly.