A Study For The Impact Of Delayed Retirement On The Active Labor Force

The aging population in China has been becoming increasingly serious,and the policy of postponing retirement age has been put on the agenda,because of the decrease of newly-born population and the increase of life expectancy.This policy has become the focus of the public concern as well as one of the priorities of government reform.Hence,it is vital to explore whether the policy will exert negative impact on the current employment situation and whether it will aggravate the less optimistic employment pressure.Besides,for the government,it should be known in advance whether this policy will lead to some unfavorable conditions for the development of the employment market so that the preventive measures can be taken.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to explore the impact of the policy of postponing retirement age on China's working-age population.This paper,mainly using statistical methods,is intended to make an empirical analysis of the impact of the policy of postponing retirement age on China's working-age population.The official data will be employed to establish a suitable mathematical model to verify the idea proposed in the paper while the current situation of China's aging and employment environment is analyzed.The conclusions of this paper can be summarized as follows:(1)The paper uses the time series prediction model to forecast the retired population and the employed population,and compare the annual growth of the retired population with the employed population;the paper also discusses the impact on the labor market when the retired population should be transformed into the employed population after the implementation of the policy of postponing retirement age;(2)Taking GDP,labor participation rate and old-age dependency ratio into consideration,the paper uses the multiple linear regression model to analyse the impact of the policy of postponing retirement age on the employment of the working-age population in China,and verifies that the policy of postponing retirement age has a certain negative impact on working-age workers;(3)Based on the empirical results of this paper,policy suggestions are proposed to reduce the impact of the policy of postponing retirement age on employment.