The Effect Of Delayed Retirement On China's Youth Unemployment Rate

Nowadays,China's social and economic development is very fast,and people's overall life expectancy has been extended.The increasing aging of China's aging population will cause the shrinking of the labor force.In the future,China will face the grim situation of the shortage of labor supply.In this situation,there has been more and more discussion about delaying retirement.Delaying the retirement age of workers can,on the one hand,alleviate the pressure on social pensions and,on the one hand,make full use of our human resources.Moreover,the current life expectancy of the world's population has been significantly improved,and the age of delayed retirement can make the pension fund grow substantially and it can also ensure the rapid development of the economy.At present,the retirement age in our country is relatively low from an international perspective.Therefore,it has become inevitable that China has introduced a policy on delaying the retirement age.However,many people consider employment-related issues,especially college students who are about to enter the community and young people who have just entered the society.Delaying the retirement age will make the elderly stay in the labor force for a longer period of time,thus causing a certain crowding-out effect on the employment of the youth.Based on this,this paper studies the mechanism of the effects of delayed retirement and youth unemployment.This paper uses data from 2005 to 2016 in 31 provinces across the country as a sample.Based on the theory of life cycle and job search theory,the age-appropriate number of employees and old-age dependency ratio are used to measure the factors affecting delayed retirement and use it as an explanatory variable.The registered unemployment rate is used as an alternative variable to the youth unemployment rate,and it is used as an explanatory variable,and then a fixed effect model is used for regression.Finally,the 31 provinces were grouped according to the degree of marketization and the degree of talent concentration,and research was conducted to explore the effect of delayed retirement on the youth unemployment rate under different groups.The empirical research results show that the working-age population of the right age has a positive effect on the youth unemployment rate,that is,the youth unemployment rate will increase with the increase of the working-age population.There is also a positive correlation between old-age dependency ratio and youth unemployment rate,which indicates that the youth unemployment rate will decrease with the decline of old-age dependency ratio.The regional classification and regression for different degrees of marketization and talent concentration indicate that the lower the degree of marketization,the greater the youth unemployment rate is affected by delayed retirement.The youth unemployment rate in the region with the lowest concentration of talents is the most affected,followed by the medium-ranking talents,and the lowest in the highest concentration of talents.At the end of the paper,corresponding policy recommendations are proposed for the issue of delayed retirement in China.This study has theoretical and practical implications for late retirement and youth employment.For young people who are about to enter the society or have just entered the society,whether the elderly will affect their retirement will need to be considered carefully by the government.At present,the public does not have a deep understanding of the issue of delayed retirement.This study will help deepen public understanding of the issue.In addition,this article also provides reference suggestions for regions with different degrees of development.Based on the results of the study,it helps to understand the difference in the youth unemployment rate in different regions due to the delayed retirement of the elderly.