Research On The Relationship Between The Age Structure Of China’s Population And Household Housing Demand Based On CHFS Micro Data

The housing issue is both a livelihood issue and a development issue.It is related to the vital interests of thousands of households,the well-being of the people,and the harmony and stability of social development.At the beginning of the founding of the People’s Republic of China,China implemented the housing distribution system.In 1998,the welfare housing distribution system was completely ended,and the monetization of housing distribution began to be implemented.China’s real estate industry gradually entered a new period of prosperity and development,with the housing sales area and sales price rising all the way.As the main consumer of the housing market,the population has different needs for housing at different ages.China’s population has entered the development stage of "low birth,low death and low natural growth",and the trend of fewer children,aging and family size miniaturization has gradually become a trend.Under the background of the increasing housing demand and the population age structure entering the new normal,it is of great significance to study the relationship between the population age structure and the family housing demand.This thesis first discusses the population transformation theory,life cycle theory and real estate supply and demand theory,combs the relevant research results at home and abroad,and theoretically analyzes the role mechanism of population age structure on family housing demand,laying a theoretical foundation for the realization of quantitative empirical research later.Then use the micro-data from the 2013,2015,2017 and 2019 China Family Finance Survey database to verify the impact of population age structure on housing demand.In this study,the explained variable uses the household housing ownership and the number of housing holdings to measure housing demand,and the explanatory variable uses the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio to measure the population age structure.The control variables are selected from the basic characteristics of the head of household and the economic status of the family,and the influence of the population age structure on the family housing demand is analyzed by constructing the panel two-value Probit model and the panel multi-value Logit model.Finally,based on the intermediary effect model,this thesis discusses the effect path of population age structure on housing demand from the perspective of labor supply,and puts forward targeted policy recommendations.Based on theoretical and empirical research,this thesis draws the following conclusions: First,the marginal utility of the child dependency ratio is-0.026.Every unit of increase in the child dependency ratio will reduce the probability of family ownership of housing by 2.6%,indicating that the child population suppresses family housing demand.However,the marginal utility of the elderly dependency ratio is 0.009.Every unit of the elderly dependency ratio increases the probability of the family owning housing by 0.9%,which shows that the aging population has a positive role in promoting the family housing demand.Moreover,there are regional differences in the impact of population age structure on household housing demand in the eastern,central,and western regions.Secondly,families with higher child rearing ratios are relatively less likely to hold more properties.Families with a high elderly dependency ratio significantly increase their likelihood of owning one or two housing units,but the impact on owning three or more housing units is not significant.Thirdly,an increase in the dependency ratio of children in households will indeed suppress housing demand by reducing labor supply.Finally,this article proposes suggestions to optimize the population age structure and strengthen real estate management based on research conclusions and actual situation,in order to further promote the stable and healthy development of China’s housing market.