Analysis Of Wuhan Housing Bubble And Regulating Research Based On The Purchase-Rent No-arbitrage Condition

Since the market oriented reform of urban housing industry of China in 1998,Chinese real estate industry has become more and more mature after development for more than a dozen years,and grown to be a major engine of economic growth for China.Meanwhile,the market oriented reform has led to a marketed housing price which is no longer controlled by the government,the housing price has kept growing since 1998,and experienced an unprecedented nationally surge after 2004,this triggered a number of economic and social problems,especially concerns about China's asset bubble on housing and risk in the financial system,as well as dissatisfaction on affordability difficulty for home buyers resulted by roaring housing prices,etc..The housing market problem with prices as the core in contemporary China is particularly important given the fact that the world economy is still in stagnation,Europe and America's resurgence are slow and the demand for Chinese goods is shrinking.There is no exaggeration for us to say that the housing price problem is one of the most important factors that matters for China's macroeconomic performance and social stability.Wuhan is a big city in the center of China,although its price has an apparent disparity comparing Beijing and Shanghai,it continuously rising quickly.Wuhan,in the end there are no price bubble?Through the evaluation of Wuhan housing bubble,the paper analyzes the reason for rising house prices,and makes some appropriate policy recommendations to control real estate market.Based on the above considerations,this paper is organized as follows:The first part is an introduction,describes the background and meaning of the real estate,the theoretical basis for the domestic and international research review this study and research methods,review of domestic and international research,the theoretical basis of this study and the main research methods;The second part is to make a brief review of the development and current status of China's real estate market;The third part is the study of the housing market bubble measurement.In this chapter,on basis of the purchase-rent no-arbitrage conditions,we will build an equilibrium model to launch a theoretical formula to calculate purchase-rent.The formula provides a new judgment for us to assess whether the real estate has price bubble.On basis of the purchase-rent no-arbitrage conditions,the paper makes an empirical analysis of whether Wuhan housing prices has bubble;The fourth part is the causes of Wuhan bubble prices.From the economic growth,population growth and movement of excess liquidity,land mechanism defects and psychological perspective,Five Wuhan price bubble causes were analyzed;Part fifth is the impact of real estate control policy analysis and policy recommendations.