Study On The Stability Of Regional Urban Land Price System Based On Set Pair Analysis

Urban land price is a complex system which impacted by the aspects of nature society,economy and others.It can be sensitively reflected the land supply and demand,and even an important lever to control the land market.From the perspective of system theory,land price is regarded as a multi-faceted and multi-organic dynamic system to study the stability of urban land price system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The results of the study will help for deeping theory and method of urban land price research,reflecting the marketization of urban land in time,and provide the scientific basis for coordinating regional land price,setting different urban land price policy and strengthening macro regulation of land market.This research is supported by the National Natural Science Fund Project "Study on the variation law of multi-scale urban land price"(2015?2018a,No.41471090)and Hebei Province Natural Science Fund Project "Study on Structure Optimization of regional land price system and the reasonable range"(2015?2017a,No.D2015205225)and doctoral fund project of Hebei Normal University "Study on Structure Optimization and Reasonable Range of Regional Land Price System"(2016?2018a,No.L2016B14).From the prospective of system theory,the concept of urban land price system is introduced the first time.Using set pair analysis method to determine the stable of urban land price system in Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region from 2007 to 2014,analyze the contribution of each index to the stability of urban land price system.The main study conclusions are as follows.(1)Based on the analysis of the stability index system of urban land price system,the evaluation index system including 17 targets of target layer A,criterion layer C and index layer P is constructed and determine the weight of each index by the analytic hierarchy.(2)Due to adjacent to Beijing and Tianjin,Langfang land price fluctuation is very big from 2017 to 2014,and economic and social indicators such as correlation is very low.From the actual situation of Langfang,which is directly recognized that land price system is not stable.The stability of land price system is affected by the economic development in Beijing,Shijiazhuang,Tangshan,Qinhuangdao,Handan,Xingtai,Cangzhou and Hengshui and social development in Tianjin,Baoding,Zhangjiakou,Chengde.The urbanization rate has great influenced on the stability of land price system,and the influence of policy factors and per capita road freight volume is small.(3)Learning from the evaluation method of ecosystem stability and the theory of set pair analysis,method of partitioning the stability of land price system is proposed which is based on the number of connections.The stability of land price system is determined by discussing the difference of i value.When i = 1.the Beijing land price system is in the "stable"state,the other 11 city land price system are in the "generally stable" state;When i = 0,Tangshan and Hengshui land price system in the "unstable'" state,the other 10 urban land price system are in the "generally stable" state;When i =-1 Beijing and Chengde land price system in the "generally stable" state,other urban land price systems are in the "unstable" state.(4)By using setting pair analysis to analysis the stability of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban land price system.Urban land price system of Beijing and Chengde are in the same trend,and which stability is better.Land price system of another 10 cities are in the opposite trend,which shows the stable trend.(5)Through to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban land price system stability analysis of the pessimistic and optimistic,urban land price system of Beijing,Cangzhou,Baoding,Shijiazhuang,Tianjin,Zhangjiakou,Handan,Chengde,Xingtai have a big change in the view of pessimistic and optimistic and the land price system to improve more easy.Hengshui,Qinhuangdao,Tangshan change smaller,so the land price system is very difficult to improve.