Study On The Effects Of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations On China's Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry Export

Since entering the 21st century,China's foreign trade has developed rapidly,surpassing Germany,the United States and other old trading powers,becoming the world's largest trading country.At the same time,the economic is also increasing,and the development of China's foreign trade has benefited greatly from the support of RMB exchange rate.After the 2008 global financial crisis,the RMB exchange rate in general,the appreciation trend,then the impact of the exchange rate on exports,and how much they have impact,these are worthy of our in-depth study.There have been many studies on the role of RMB exchange rate fluctuations in the import and export of countries,but few articles on the impact of the export trade of computers and other electronic information manufactures.2017,China's electronic manufacturing production growth rapidly,compared to other industries in the second industry,the electronic manufacturing industry has maintained a leading production speed,is the industry leader;In addition,last year,exports of the industry improved,the 2017 electronic information manufacturing exports to improve,from 2016 negative to positive,The value of exports increased by 14.2%,compared with the total value of industrial exports,by 3.5%per cent,representing 41.4%per cent of industrial exports above the industrial export scale.It can be seen that the export of electronic information manufacturing is very important to Chinese manufacturing export.It is necessary to study the impact of the RMB on the export trade of computers and other electronic information manufactures.The author first sums up the previous theories of the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on international trade,including the Marshall-Lerner condition,the lag theory of exchange rate depreciation,absorption analysis,currency analysis and the incomplete exchange rate transfer.Then the paper briefly analyzes the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate,then analyzes the production,benefit and export status of China's electronic information manufacturing industry.On the basis of the above theoretical analysis,a total of 484 sample data from January 2007 to October 2017 were selected,and the ADF stationary test,the optimal lag order test,the stability test,the cointegration test,the standardized cointegration vector and the VEC model were established,and finally the impulse response function and variance decomposition were analyzed.Based on this,the relationship between exchange rate fluctuation and export trade of China's electronic information manufacturing industry is deduced.China's electronic manufacturing export exchange rate elasticity is 0.61925,its absolute value is less than 1,indicating that the exchange rate has little effect.Foreign residents ' income and the actual investment has a positive correlation with the actual export of electronic information manufacturing industry,which has a great influence on the export of the industry,and the elasticity is 1.67782 and 1.50551 respectively.Second,the rise in the RMB's effective exchange rate has facilitated the export of Chinese electronics manufacturing in the short term.However,the long-term rise of the RMB real effective exchange rate has continued to restrain the export of China's electronic manufacturing industry,indicating that the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a J-curve effect on China's electronic information manufacturing industry.Third,from a long-term perspective,foreign resident income the degree of interpretation of Export in the electronic information manufacturing industry is increasing in fluctuation,with the highest degree of interpretation in three variables,the interpretation reached 28.36575%in the 20th period,which indicates that external need directly affects the export of Chinese electronic equipment manufacturing enterprises.The explanation degree of foreign direct investment is also rising continuously,in the 20th period,the explanation degree is 20.379795%,which indicates that the enterprises of electronic information manufacturing industry in China still have strong dependence on foreign investment.Finally,based on the empirical conclusion,the paper makes some suggestions on the export of China's electronic information manufacturing industry.We hope that China's electronic equipment manufacturing enterprises in the transition period of economic structure can seize the opportunity to establish a new integrated supply management system,management and sharing of knowledge,strengthen independent research and development,improve the overall competitiveness of enterprises,improve the international competitiveness of the entire industry and maintain an advantage in foreign trade.