An Empirical Study Of The Fix-Mobile Substitution Effect In China Telecom Industry

As an important part of a country's economy,the telecommunications industry plays a more and more important role in the economic development.Based on the important position of the telecommunications industry in the national economy,more and more scholars have measured the contribution of the telecommunications industry,in order to provide solid evidence for the development of a more complete telecommunications industry development policy.However,it needs to be pointed out that currently the relevant research mainly focuses on the research on the contribution of the telecommunication industry to economic growth,seldom relates to the internal characteristics of the telecommunication industry,for example,the number of fixed-line subscribers in China has continuously decreased in the past decade,and mobile users are continuously growing.Does the alternative exist for a long time? Affected by what factors? The impact of broadband,mobile Internet and other services on traditional businesses is different.Will the reform of the telecommunications industry affect traditional telecommunication services? Deeply analysis of these issues is not only to promote the development of the telecommunications industry itself,taking into account the telecommunications technology is a common technology,related research is also an important focus of the country's economic rapid and healthy development.So,this article mainly analysis the problem of fix-mobible substitution in the telecommunications industry.Based on a clear understanding of the status of China's telecommunications industry,a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis methods is used to comprehensively analyze the effects of fixed displacement in China's telecommunications industry and their influencing factors.The main content of the article is as follows:The first part is the outline and research setting of China's telecom industry.First of all,the telecommunications industry has been summarized,including the development history of the telecommunications industry,a comprehensive description of the status quo of the development of China's telecommunications industry;an analysis of the development of fixed telephone and mobile communication services,mainly analyzing the status and development trend of the two services;The analysis of telecommunications reforms,takes the telecommunication reform in 2008 as an example;it analyzes the impact of the development of wired broadband and the Internet on the communications business.Then we give the research settings,including the theoretical analysis and empirical hypothesis of the complementation or substitution effect,analysis and empirical setting of the influencing factors,the impact of full-service competition and the empirical setting.The second part is an empirical analysis of the relationship between fixed and mobile services.For the empirical analysis,the static and dynamic estimations of the fixed and mobile relationship were separately conducted.In the dynamic model,since the price variable has a large endogeneity,the price of the neighboring five provinces is used as a tool for the price of the province to improve the estimation effect.Based on the above analysis,the impact of broadband and the internet on the popularity of fixed telephones and mobile phones was analyzed by counter-factual analysis.Finally,a robustness test is performed on the model estimates.The third part analyzes and summarizes the research results of this paper.The empirical results show that:(1)At the telecom service price level,there is a strong alternative between mobile services and fixed-line services,and the extent of price impact is expanding after the telecommunications reform in 2008;(2)The introduction of broadband has reduced the substitution effect of mobile services on fixed-line services,while mobile internet has strengthened the substitution between the two;(3)The reform of the telecommunications industry in 2008 has Slowed down the substitution degree between the two.Then,we propose targeted measures for the development of China's telecommunications industry,and finally point out the deficiencies in this study and possible research directions in the future.