Land Use Structure Optimization And Simulation Of Low-Carbon-Oriented

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on climate change(IPCC)fifth assessment report pointed out that there is no doubt about the global warming trend.Land use playing an important role in increasing the content of atomospheric carbon dioxide,and the impact of land resoureces,as the carrier of all human activities,is second only to the burning of fossil fuels.Therefore,under the background of developing a low-carbon economy,it is of great significance to study how to optimize land use structure and layout to reduce regional carbon emissions and increase carbon sequestration,thus realizing the coordinated and sustainable development of land resources utilization and social economy.Based on the above research background,according to the related research about carbon emissions of land use at home and abroad,it integrated the method of estimating land use carbon emissions and carbon sink.Then,calculate the carbon emissions and carbon sinks of land use in Deyang City from 2005-2015 based on low-carbon oriented land use theory built on the basis of human-land relations theory,sustainable development theory and land optimal allocation theory.On the basis,the LMDI decomposition model was used to decompose the factors affecting land use carbon emissions,such as per capita GDP and land use structure.Then,using the grey correlation method to explore the relationship between the land use structure and carbon budget in Deyang.Through the objective function of land-use carbon emissions,land economic benefits and ecological benefits,a low-carbon oriented land use structure optimization model was established,and a multi-objective linear programming approach was used to solve the low-carbon oriented land use optimization structure of Deyang City in 2020.Based on this,the FLUS model was used to simulate the optimized land use space layout of Deyang City in the year of 2020.Finally,the potential of land-use carbon reduction and benefit enhancement was analyzed,then put forward corresponding low-carbon land use strategies and policy recommendations.The main contents of the study are as follows:(1)Calculation and analysis of carbon emissions/carbon sequestration of land use in Deyang city.? On the whole,the carbon emissions from land use in Deyang City increased year by year in stages,from 3,853,900 tons in 2005 to 10,383.6 tons in 2015,with an average annual growth rate of 15.4%.? According to the LMDI model's decomposition of the influencing factors of land use carbon emissions in Deyang City,the effects of various factors affecting the change in net carbon emissions from land use in Deyang are sorted by size:i ig >k >l >p <q.Among them,the intensity of land use per unit of GDP is the main factor to reduce carbon emission,and the cumulative contribution rate of carbon emission reduction are 820.20 million tons,respectively.While per capital GDP is the main factor driving the increase of carbon emission,during the study period,cumulative contribution of 807.28 million tons and 5.69 million tons of carbon emissions,respectively,contributed 35.20% and 24.81% of the overall effect.? The relationship between land use structure change and carbon budget in Deyang was calculated by using the gray relational degree.It was found that there was a high degree of difference in correlation between the change of land use structure and carbon budget.The most relevant type of land use is construction land,the grey correlation coefficient between land use structure and net carbon emissions is 0.9225;on the contrary,the smallest is cultivated land,the grey correlation coefficient between land use structure and net carbon emissions is 0.5186.Based on above research,it shows that there is a huge potential to reduce land use net carbon emissions by optimizing the structure at this stage.(2)Land use structure optimization and simulation of low-carbon-oriented:? Using LINGO 11.0 software to solve the low-carbon guided comprehensive objective function can be obtained: according to the optimized land use structure,the total amount of carbon emissions has been reduced by 685,300 tons compared to the planning scheme,and the ecological benefit has increased by 317 million yuan,which is very good to achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions in Deyang and increasing carbon sinks.Although the economic benefit was reduced by 9.282 billion yuan,it can meet the demand for land in Deyang's socio-economic development in 2020.? Using FLUS model to simulate the spatial layout of Deyang City in 2020 under the planning scheme and low-carbon optimization program,respectively: The most significant changes under the two scenarios were construction land,forest land,and garden land.Under the low-carbon plan,the expansion of construction land in the middle of the plain has been effectively controlled,and the woodlands in the Central Longquan Mountains and the hilly regions in the southeast have grown concentrically and contiguously,and the gardens on the western edge of the plain have grown significantly.? Using Fragstats4.2 software to evaluate the ecological effects of spatial layout type and landscape level under the two schemes can be obtained: Regardless of whether it is at the type level or the landscape level,the ecological effect indicators of the land use space landscape pattern under the low carbon scheme are more significant than the planning scheme.In addition,the overall landscape ecological pattern of land use space layout under the low carbon scheme has a stronger spatial agglomeration effect,and it is also more conducive to the increase of the land use space layout.(3)The conclusions of low-carbon oriented land use structures and simulation studies are as follows:The land use structure under low-carbon orientation in Deyang City can effectively achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions and increasing carbon sinks both in terms of quantity optimization and optimization of spatial layout.More importantly,the contradiction between carbon emission reduction and social-economic development and development is well balanced in both the quantitative structure of land use and the spatial distribution of land use.More importantly,the contradiction between carbon emission reduction and social-economic development and development is well balanced in the quantitative structure of land use and the spatial layout of land use.The optimization of land use in quantity and space can not only effectively reduce carbon emissions,increase ecological benefits,but also effectively meet the needs of Deyang City of social and economic development in the future.This shows that the optimization program has a certain degree of scientificity,rationality and realizability.(4)Study on the countermeasures of land use under low carbon guidance :Based on the calculation and analysis of the land use carbon revenue and expenditure in Deyang City from 2005 to 2015,and the actual situation of land use in Deyang City,according to the classification of land use types in Deyang City,the corresponding measures for reducing carbon emissions and increasing carbon sinks were proposed for carbon source land and carbon sink land,respectively,and suggestions for establishing a low carbon land use development model were proposed.