Study On Evaluation And Forecast Of Urbanization Quality In Counties Based On Dynamic Incentives

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has continued to develop at a rapid rate,and urbanization has also entered a period of rapid development.The 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020.It also requires that the pace of urbanization in all regions should be accelerated.The county area plays an important role in the social and economic life of our country.Urbanization in the county area is the basis of regional urbanization.Therefore,promoting the healthy and rapid development of county urbanization is of great significance for China to realize the Chinese dream.However,with the emergence of the new normal of China's economic development,the economic transformation and development and the construction of new urbanization require us to accurately assess the quality of urbanization in the region.The traditional method of measuring urbanization by economic development is no longer applicable.A more scientific and comprehensive evaluation method is needed to measure the quality of urbanization in the county so that it can give correct guidance for future development.Taking the key development zones in Jiangxi Province as an example,the article explores a comprehensive evaluation model under dynamic incentives to measure the quality of urbanization in counties in order to open up new ideas for urbanization evaluation research.After studying the literature both at home and abroad,the article found that there is still much room for development in the study of urbanization.Therefore,after clarifying the purpose and significance of the research,30 counties in key development zones in Jiangxi Province were selected as research objects and the economy was selected.The five dimensions of development,ecological construction,social development,people's livelihood improvement,and social stability are nearly40 indicators,and an index system for assessing the urbanization quality of counties is constructed,and an interactive group evaluation method based on ROWA operator is used to assign indexes to the right;Factor-analysis method and dynamic incentiveassessment method are used to construct a static and dynamic assessment model of urbanization quality in counties so as to evaluate the quality of county-wide urbanization.Gray forecasting method is used to predict the dynamic evaluation value of urbanization quality in county areas in 2016;Compared with the traditional dynamic analysis and static evaluation value,the effectiveness and applicability of the model are verified.In addition,this paper also uses GIS software to make the spatial pattern map of key development zones,analyzes the urbanization differences of each county from the perspective of spatial distribution,and gives corresponding development countermeasures and suggestions.