| Against the backdrop of Doha Round negotiations being blocked and upsurge in development of multilateral trade system,regional economic cooperation represented by Free Trade Agreement(FTA)has been widely recognized worldwide.Throughout international trend of development and "The Belt and Road" Initiative,as main grip and system carrier,establishing FTA is not only in line with the current trend of international economic development but also with actual needs from development of an open economy in our country and development appeal from countries(or regions)along the line.Therefore,taking FTA as a grip to speed up the construction of "The Belt and Road" so as to enhance China's ability to participate actively in formulation of international economy and trade rules and fight for institutional power in global economic governance is an important move for pushing forward reform of internal economic structure,further expanding opening up,promoting transformation and upgrading of economic development ways and deal with the goal for United States to dominate and reshape global trade order.In view of this,it is necessary to deeply analyze choice of FTA partners along "The Belt and Road" and their economic effects so as to speed up construction of FTA with countries as well as regions along "The Belt and Road" and plan to build a FTA network based on surrounding and beaming "The Belt and Road".On the basis of reviewing relevant theories of regional economic integration,this study first sorts out related literature on FTA construction and its measurement of economic effects such as regional cooperation along "The Belt and Road",choice of potential FTA partners and economic effects of FTA.Based on these theories,we select bilateral trade data and industry trade data between China and countries along "The Belt and Road" to calculate Bilateral Trade Compatibility Index(TI),Trade Competitiveness Index(TC)and Regional Revealed Comparative Advantage Index(RRCA),considering regional strategic fulcrum construction planning and political and cultural factors,we selected Mongolia in South Asia,Bangladesh,Nepal,Sri Lanka and India in Northeast Asia,Kazakhstan in Central Asia,GCC in Russia and Commonwealth in West Asia and Egypt in North Africa as FTA priority partners for China along "The Belt and Road".Based on above researches,GTAP model is used about two aspects for transportation technology promotion and tariff reduction in phases to set two types of potential implementation plans for FTA,moreover,their economic effects are carried out prior simulation evaluation from five aspects:economic growth,welfare,output,trade term and import and export.The results show that construction of potential FTA has a positive impact on internal economic development while negative impact on external economies of non-FTA members and its positive and negative impact is more obvious with deepening FTA cooperation degree,at the same time,economic scale of FTA members is highly related to expected economic effect.Finally,this paper concludes that China should first choose 9 economies along the route as key partners,and gradually conduct cooperative negotiations to promote FTA construction along the route,finally forming FTA network layout with "points" to "lines"and "lines" to "surface".At the same time,it is necessary to give full play to role of potential FTA as a strategic fulcrum in layout of "The Belt and Road",with a focus on advancing key partners including Russia,India,the GCC and Egypt,giving play to promotion and media role of key economies so as to form good demonstration effect and"domino effect",actively expand FTA negotiations with other countries along the route,speed up southward expansion of "The Belt and Road" and comprehensively construct FTA network that will radiate the route,open up a new pattern of opening up,upgrade China's Regional discourse rights and international status,and make contributions to building a community of human destinies. |
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