Empirical Research On The Impact Of Fluctuating RMB Exchange Rate On China's Goods Export Trade

With the rapid development of the world economy,global trade goes deeper.The popularity of Internet technology and the intensive logistics network provide convenience for global commodities to enter our daily life.Exchange rate,as a trade link,plays an important role in transnational transactions.Exchange rate can exchange a country's currency to another.Exchange rate is an important price indicator to measure the state's external economic activities.And it is a direct means of regulating the international economy and shows the comprehensive economic level of a country from the side.Many countries in the world balance the balance of international trade through adjust the exchange rate system.Through its own change,the exchange rate affects the price and quantity of the import and export goods,and then affects the export trade of a country.China has made constant efforts in the formulation and adjustment of exchange rate policy.In 2005,the exchange rate system was changed from a fixed exchange rate system to a floating exchange rate system.The reform of the exchange rate system in2015 makes China's exchange rate more marketable.In 2017,there were some major events,such as the Trump new deal,the British Europe,the Italy and the French election.And all of these will bring instability to the global economy."Belt and Road Initiative" policy will strengthen China's level of opening up.It also adds uncertainty to our foreign trade.At this time,the actual purchasing power of money in various countries fluctuates more frequently.It is particularly important to analyze the influence of exchange rate on the export trade of goods in China.This paper first analyzes the background and significance of the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate on China's goods export trade.Secondly,the theory of exchange rate and export trade is described.The classical theory of the relationship between exchange rate and export trade is expounded.It also introduces the change of China's exchange rate and the development of China's export trade.Then,establish a VAR model and make a selection and assignment of the indicators used in the model.The relationship between the change of RMB exchange rate and China's goods export trade is analyzed at last.The results show that the economic data selected in this paper are not smooth,but after processing the data,the test results are stable and conform to the application conditions of the model.The result of Granger causality test shows that the REER of RMB is the Granger cause of goods export.The results of impulse response function show that the REER of RMB has a negative impact on the goods export in China in a short term.Reasonable suggestions to the export enterprises and the government are put forward.The government should actively promote the internationalization of RMB,improve the formation mechanism of exchange rate,accelerate the development of the financial market and adjust the strategy of economic development.The goods export enterprise should identify the risk and prejudge the risk,and take various measures to avoid the risk.