Study On The Developmental Credit Risks Of Shantytowns Transformation

At present,China is in the decisive stage of accelerating urbanization and building a moderately prosperous society in all respects.In 2008,the party central committee and the state council incorporated the renovation of rundown areas into the urban government-subsidized housing project,and began large-scale implementation nationwide.After nearly a decade of development,by the end of 2017,about 22.6 million shantytowns had been renovated.After the large-scale renovation of shantytowns in recent years,the state council made new arrangements for the renovation of shantytowns at the "two sessions" held in 2018.The state council launched a three-year battle to tackle the problem of shantytowns renovation,and plans to renovate 15 million shantytowns by 2020 and complete 5.8 million shantytowns by 2018.Premier li keqiang has presided over many executive meetings of the state council since the beginning of 2018 to promote the renovation of shantytowns,further improve the living conditions of people with housing difficulties,and the shantytowns have entered a new stage of development.The party and government attach great importance to the reconstruction and construction of shantytowns as one of the important measures to improve the housing of middle and low-income families in cities.The financing of shantytowns reconstruction will be a key research topic for a long time to come.Because the shantytown renovation project has the credit cycle is long,large amount,low yield of funds,combined with the current our country exists a certain degree of financial market is not perfect,shantytown renovation project there is a big potential risks of credit business,these characteristics led to a shantytown renovation project of social capital participation is not high,the source of funds to finance allocates funds,local government bonds,developmental financial credit mainly.As the only development financial institution in China,CDB has always been an important source of funds for national infrastructure construction,and has made positive contributions to raising and guiding social funds,supporting national infrastructure and basic industries.As the scale of shantytown reconstruction continues to expand,development finance plays an increasingly important role in supporting shantytown reconstruction projects.CDB's credit fund security is also under great pressure due to the large amount of credit fund for the shantytown reform,the long recovery period,and the large number of variables in the period.Therefore,CDB is more cautious about the review and post-loan management of shantytown reconstruction projects and strictly guard against credit risks.In this paper,the author in the actual work medium and long-term developmental credit business engaged in turn shantytowns into new housing areas,developmental financial credit policy areas,turn shantytowns into new housing areas for project operation process and the prevention and control of credit risk there is a real knowledge and deep thinking,in the project screening,credit evaluation,and post-loan management link has the theoretical foundation and rich work experience,has collected rich operating cases and statistical data,discovered the developmental credit risk prevention and control of weak links.On the basis of studying the mode and experience comparison of credit risk prevention for shantytown reconstruction projects abroad and at home,this paper analyzes the credit risk of a city's TP shantytown reconstruction project by establishing an evaluation model of development credit risk by using literature,comparative analysis and empirical analysis.This paper sorted out the operation mode of CDB's shantytown reconstruction loan,and identified the credit risk from the whole life cycle of shantytown reconstruction project.Project risks are divided into pre-loan risks,post-loan factors leading to credit risks and other factors leading to changes in credit risks,and risk assessment model is established.For the internal risk,mainly the credit risk assessment caused by finance,this paper adopts the quantitative analysis method,establishes the net cash flow model to dynamically evaluate the project credit risk,and calculates by monte carlo simulation method.As for the credit risk assessment caused by external factors such as policy risk,there is no specific data,which cannot be quantified and quantified.Only qualitative analysis can be conducted.Ahp and expert scoring method are used to evaluate the external risk.Combined with the actual case of TP shantytown reconstruction project in a city,the model was applied to identify and evaluate the risks and suggest the risk prevention measures.