Research On Transfer Value Of Rural Land Contract Management Right Based On Real Options

The British classical economist William Pedi said that "labor is the father of wealth,and land is the mother of wealth" He believes that the real source of so cial wealth is land and labor.In China,urban land is owned by the state,and l and users obtain land using rights for a limited period of time according to our country condition.Rural land is owned by the community.Chinese special social conditions and characteristic land system have always had a fundamental impact on China's agricultural economy.The rural land system has undergone a series of changes,which purpose is to improve agricultural productivity and the living standards of farmers.At the beginning of reform and development,the household contract system has stimulated farmers' labor enthusiasm and rapidly improved a gricultural productivity.After 40 years of development,urbanization have advance d rapidly,and a large number of rural populations have moved to cities and tow ns.The quality of rural labor has shown a downward trend.In order to promote the further development of the rural areas,the rural collective land ownership,c ontracting rights,and management rights are divided and the potential of rural la nd is released in terms of policies.The management right can be listed and tran sferred,and how to confirm transaction price on management right of state.The traditional evaluation methods mainly include cost approximation method,market comparison method,income reduction method and benchmark land price correcti on coefficient method.Due to the lagging development of our country agricultura l land evaluation,we use agricultural land rent price as land price,China's agric ultural land price is actually the use of agricultural land rent price,while foreign prices are the ownership price,domestic and foreign countries due to national c onditions,the relevant evaluation theory can not fully match.At present,the trad itional evaluation method has the option of the contractor in the process of usin g the land,which leads to the lack of certain accuracy in the evaluation results and underestimates the value of the land in the evaluation practice.Therefore,thi s paper introduces the real option method,hoping to make reasonable suggestion s on the agricultural land transfer price.The biggest challenge in adopting the real option method is the determination of relevant parameters,in which the determination of price volatility is particularl y difficult,because the domestic market is not perfect.After careful consideration,the author decided to use Japanese market transaction data to estimate volatility.But there are two problems.First,Japan's land price is the price of its ownersh ip,it is the real land price,and China's land price or turnover price is the rent price.The other is the national conditions and national risks of China and Japan.The first problem is solved by the open market hypothesis and the trading hyp othesis.In the open market,the transaction between the supply and the demandreaches an equilibrium price.According to the land rent theory,the land price is the discount of the rent.Therefore,the fluctuation of the land price can reflect the fluctuation of the rent price.The second issue can be resolved through natio nal risk corrections.According to the special nature of agricultural land in produ ction,this paper uses agricultural growth rate,inflation coefficient and bank loan interest rate to verify.Finally,the transfer cases in the Yongqiao District of Suzhou are calculated by the income reduction method,the market comparison method and the real optio n method.The real price option is the highest in the absolute price,which is m ainly considering the selection value of the contractor.The market method is the lowest,mainly because the current land transfer market is not fully established,and labor shortage in rural may affect the market.