Research On Export Trade Potential Of Textile And Garment Industry Between China And Major Countries From The Belt And Road

China has always been a major producer and exporter of textile and garment and taken the lead in the international market,staying at around 35%,since the reform and opening-up.Due to technological innovation and the rise of other emerging market countries,the advantages of raw materials and labor costs have gradually narrowed.In recent years,China's textile and garment industry has been affected by the impact of international competitiveness.It was 2015 when the growth rate of China's textile and garment export has shown growth-negative 4.95%.In order to make the textile and garment industry transform and upgrade and continue to play an active role in the national economy,in the context of the “One Belt and One Road” strategic concept proposed by President Xi in 2013,the textile and garment industry needs to look for new development opportunities and take targeted measures to break through the bottleneck of the development of the industry.This paper first introduced the relevant theories of international trade and gave a comprehensive review of the research of the “One Belt and One Road”,the influencing factors of textile and clothing export trade,the gravity model of trade and the potential of export trade.Secondly,through comparative analysis,the horizontal and vertical,This paper analyses the development status of the international trade of textiles and garments in the world.Ten sample countries studied in this paper were selected from the 65 countries along the Belt and Road and making complementary analysis of trade products by trade complementarity indices.Then we have screened and compiled China's panel data for textile and garment trade in 10 sample countries from 2006 to 2015 calculating the export trade potential of textile and garment products for these 10 sample countries by means of a model extended trade gravity.The results of the study indicate that China's textile and garment export trade holds a decisive position in the global market.However,its advantages are gradually weakening.Economies of scale,the number of importing countries' population and trade complementarities are positive factors in promoting China's textile and garment export trade,among which economic size and population are key factors.The population of the exporting country,geographical distance and exchange rate increase restrict the bilateral textile and garment export trade.This paper,by the potential of export,predicts that trade in textile and garment between China and Thailand,Indonesia,Philippines,Egypt,Ukraine,Saudi Arabia,Russia and Kazakhstan is deficient,so China still has a lot of room for development in these countries.Finally,according to the results of data analysis and the influence of various factors,this article provides policy recommendations for further promoting the development of China's textile and garment industry.