A Study Of The Effect Of Public Transportation Priority Development Policy Using System Dynamics Modelling

With the development of motor vehicles and the rapid increase of public demand,the contradiction between supply of urban road resources and traffic demand is becoming more and more intense,which brings great pressure to urban traffic.Public transportation,as a carrying tool with large bearing capacity,low pollution,low occupancy rate of road resources,plays a prominent role in the development of urban traffic.The community gradually recognized that the public transport priority development is an important measure and inevitable way to solve the problem of urban traffic,which could promote urban traffic harmonious and sustainable development.The country and local governments have also introduced a number of measures to promote public transportation priority development.Public transportation priority development has been more than a decade,research and evaluation of the effect of public transportation priority development could ensure effectiveness of policy,promote public transport to develop better and meet the needs of public trip demand,and also provide a basis for decision-making and ideas for reference to guide the development of public transport priority for the government and traffic management departments.The main contents of the study are as follows:First of all,on the basis of the related theories of urban public transport,public transportation priority development and system dynamics,the research analyzed the external factors and internal factors of urban public transport,and public transportation priority development policy.The city scale,economic level,environmental pollution,traffic policy as urban public transport external environmental factors,studied relationship between public transport and socio-economic system,environment system,policy system,and the role of priority development policy on the internal factors of public transport,which provided the basis for the modelling.Secondly,the research used the system dynamics to the study of urban public transportation.Determined the system boundaries and system elements on the basis of the previous analysis,and studied the feedback behavior and logical relationship between the variables in the urban public transportation system.Then built the public transportation system dynamics model under the influence of priority development policy,and clear the relevant structural equation.Finally,the study took Beijing as an empirical,and carried out the parameter estimation and model validity test by the data from 2006 to 2015 about Beijing.Using the system dynamics model,the study simulated the policy effect of public transport priority development in Beijing since 2006.In addition,the relevant parameters were adjusted about financial priorities policy,planning priorities policy,road priority policy and technology priority policy according to the relevant planning objectives in 13 th Five-Year Plan in Beijing,the system dynamics model were used to simulate,forecast,and compare with the changes in the proportion of public transport,the average speed of the road,exhaust emissions of the main maneuvering mode during the 13 th FiveYear Plan period after policy changing.By analyzing the effect of public transport priority development policy,the study proposed recommendations to policy for better promoting public transport priority development.