Research On The Carbon Emission Of China's Export Trade With ASEAN And Its Driving Effect

As the trade between countries become more and more closer,when measuring a country's carbon emissions,it not only depends on total carbon emissions,historical carbon emissions,and carbon emissions per capital,but also depends on the transfer of carbon emissions.Since the establishment of the China ASEAN Free Trade Area in January 1,2010,China has been the largest trading partner of ASEAN.When both sides achieved fruitful results in economic,trade and social and cultural exchanges,the problems of energy and environment are becoming more and more prominent,China and ASEAN trade not only play an important role in China's economic development,but also suffer the pressure of "transfer carbon emission" brought by ASEAN.Based on this,this paper uses input-output model to discuss and analyze the implicit carbon emissions of China's exports to ASEAN,and uses LMDI method to find out the influence degree of the driving factors that lead to the change of the embodied carbon emissions of industrial sectors in China and ASEAN.The study found that in 2002,2005,2007,2010,2012 and 2015 years,China's total exports of carbon emissions to ASEAN amounted to16.0392 billion tons,the carbon emissions of China's exports to ASEAN are increasing continuously,from 0.9857 billion tons in2002 to 4.2145 billion tons in 2015,an increase of 3.2288 billion tons with an average annual growth rate of 11.82%,which shows that the growth is very rapid.Through the analysis of the driving effect,it is found that the contribution of the total effect is always positive in all time periods,that is the total effect boost the growth of carbon emissions,the main reason is that the positive effect of scale effect is much larger than the effect of structure effect and intensity effect on carbon emissions.According to the results of the study,it can not only provide reference for the state to adjust and optimize the export industrial structure of ASEAN and accelerate the transformation of economic development from the perspective of pollution control,but also has important practical significance for the country to cope with international climate negotiations,strive for more carbon emission rights and achieve the goal of national emission reduction.The innovation of this paper mainly includes: First,from the perspective of the export trade sector,taking China 's export measurement of carbon trade to ASEAN as the research object,breakthrough the previous research is limited to the macro level and single industry category,the article compares the carbon emissions among various product divisions and their drivers in a vertical and horizontal direction,to determinewhich carbon emissions of the product sector is larger,which factors have a greater impact on China's carbon emissions of ASEAN export trade,which can be more targeted proposed emission reduction policies.In addition,the existing research on the issue of carbon emissions from the export trade of China and ASEAN is rarely involved,which can provide some reference for the follow-up related research.Second,there are many driving forces that affect carbon emissions.Many scholars start from the energy point of view when considering carbon emissions,and rarely include the intensity of carbon emissions in the analysis,however,carbon emission intensity is the an very important factor affecting carbon emissions,so it is very important to bring carbon emission intensity into the study,in this paper,we decompose the influencing factors into the scale effect,the structure effect and the intensity effect in the calculation of the influencing factors of carbon emissions,comparing the impact of different drivers on carbon emissions from a total and sector perspective makes the analysis more comprehensive.