Research On The Urban Poor Population In Anhui Province: Measurement, Status Quo And Influencing Factors

Since the middle and late 90,with the economic system reform,the reform of state-owned enterprises deepening,the implementation and development of social security system and urban-rural mobility system,urban poverty gradually emerged.After entering the 21 st century,the urbanization process is speeding up,in the situation of the rural self-thrust factor and the tension factor of the town,a large number of rural surplus labor force began to transfer to the town,plus more and more laid-off unemployed people in the process of transformation and upgrading of industrial structure,as well as the increasing of newly graduated students,Gradually produced a new urban poor population,resulting in a more complex urban poverty problem,the solution is increasing.While Anhui is located in the central part of China,compared with the developed provinces in the eastern coastal areas,Hubei and Hunan,the economic and social development is relatively backward,so the problem of urban poverty is more prominent,and because of economic,political,cultural and geographical factors,The causes of urban poverty are different from those in other provinces.Therefore,based on the actual situation in Anhui Province,using the commonly used poverty line method and analyzing the common model of urban poverty,mainly based on the social level,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the present situation and reasons of the urban poor population in Anhui Province,hoping to have a more comprehensive and detailed understanding of the urban poor population in Anhui province.On the basis of this,the paper puts forward the suggestion of the urban anti-poverty policy in Anhui Province,which provides reference and basis for solving urban poverty problem.The identification of poverty and the measurement of the poverty line are the starting point of the deep analysis of all the problems,therefore,based on the introduction of the background of the study and the review of related literatures,firstly,the connotation and classification of poverty are briefly expounded,and some views on the definition of urban poor population are put forward,then the concept and division of the poverty line,The principle of measurement and the common methods at home and abroad are discussed,and the two methods of Martin method and extended linear expenditure system model are compared emphatically.Based on the rationale of the above theoretical basis,taking into account that the premise of the Eles model is that the basic consumer demand and expenditure will not be affected by the consumer'sexpected change in income,but the data we analyze is panel data,that is,they are not only at the same point in time the different individual changes,There is also the change of the same individual in different periods,so we intend to introduce the idea of panel data model on this basis,and propose an innovative method to adjust the effect of the poverty line calculated by the panel data model to the Eles model.It is also one of the innovations of this paper to conclude that Anhui province's urban poverty line may be more realistic.Then,based on the results of the above poverty line,the urban poor population in Anhui province was estimated,and the status of urban poor population in Anhui Province was analyzed in detail from four aspects of scale,structure,distribution and living condition.In terms of scale estimation,it is assumed that in the process of measuring the urban poor population of Anhui Province,the income level of the lowest income households and low income households in Anhui Province is assumed to be normal distribution,and the income group's disposable income is regarded as the expected income of the corresponding income group.Based on the results of the poverty line and its bias to the lowest income households and low income households,the incidence rate of urban poverty in Eles,Anhui Province,is estimated and the urban poverty population is calculated according to the incidence of poverty,which is another innovative point in this paper.Finally,on the basis of the analysis of the influence factors of the urban poverty population in Anhui Province from the economic,social and individual three layers,the paper further mainly from the social angle,using the Statistical Yearbook of Anhui Province in 1986-2017 and the data of the macro database,Using var model and VECM model to analyze the causes of the change of urban poor population in Anhui Province,the paper finds that the main social factors that lead to the change of urban poor population in Anhui province are urbanization level,urban poverty guarantee and the proportion of government finance expenditure in GDP.The increase of urban poverty in Anhui Province,in which the government expenditure on the proportion of GDP and urban poverty protection generally shows negative effects,and the level of urbanization will promote the urban poor population in Anhui province;Moreover,in the long run,The proportion of the fiscal expenditure in the GDP of the urban poor population in Anhui province gradually stabilized,while the urbanization level and the impact of urban poverty protection showed an upward trend,especially the impact of urbanpoverty protection increased more obvious.On the basis of the above analysis results,this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions according to the three main social factors,including: rationally promoting the urbanization process,establishing the economic growth pole with the central city as the main body,accelerating the establishment of the infrastructure and public service system,improving the management system of the floating population such as migrant workers,To eliminate the dual structure of urban and rural areas,establish a sound and sustainable social security system,gradually improve the coverage of social insurance,strengthen the legislative supervision of social security,timely and reasonable solution to the problems in the implementation of social security,encourage the expansion of social security types,build multi-level,diversified social security system;,to further improve and develop the urban minimum subsistence system,to promote the smooth progress of urban special aid,to improve and develop the urban social assistance system,to integrate all kinds of social resources,to improve the efficiency of social relief resources allocation,to train a strong professional social relief team,to create a good urban anti-poverty social environment,Increase fiscal spending on urban poverty.