Research On The Interactive Relationship Between My Country's Manufacturing Industry Agglomeration And Population Mobility

Economic development is an important aspect of economics.The long-term growth rate of economy is determined by the increase of labor force and technological progress.Its agglomeration is of great significance to economic development.Floating population as an important part of labor plays a great significance in economic development.The southeast coastal area of China,as the leading area of China's economic reform and development,has gained the inclination of capital and policy,occupied the first opportunity of industrial economic development with the reform and opening up,the industrial agglomeration of manufacturing industry,created a lot of employment opportunities for the economic society.In addition,with the reduction of the barriers to population mobility and the rapid development of the scale of population mobility in China,a large number of labor forces in the central and western regions move to the southeast coastal areas.The classic model of new economic geography and push-pull theory of population migration show that there is a mutually reinforcing relationship between population mobility and industrial agglomeration.Industrial agglomeration attracts the agglomeration of floating population.With the continuous agglomeration of floating population,it will also promote the further deepening of industrial agglomeration.Firstly,this paper analyzes the current situation of manufacturing industry agglomeration in China from the perspective of region and Industry: by calculating the location quotient index of each province over the years,it reveals the trend of manufacturing industry agglomeration in different regions in China;by calculating the industry agglomeration degree,it analyzes the agglomeration degree of manufacturing industry in China from the perspective of industry;secondly,it analyzes the population mobility in China from the perspective of time and space.At last,based on the theory of cumulative cyclic causality,established the fixed effect variable coefficient model and simultaneous equation group model to test the interaction between manufacturing industry agglomeration and population flow between the whole country and different regions.Through the above analysis,we find that: 1.In the early time of reform and opening up,the degree of manufacturing industry agglomeration in China is relatively low.After the 1990 s,manufacturing industry agglomeration has gradually turned into a source of vitality for urban development;the industries with high degree of manufacturing industry agglomeration are: Chemical fiber manufacturing(0.7893),computer,communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing(0.7276),instrument and meter manufacturing Manufacturing industry(0.7004);in 1990,the top five provinces and cities with higher manufacturing industry agglomeration were Jiangsu,Shanghai and Guangdong.In 2010,Shandong and Henan ranked higher than Shanghai.2.In 1958-1978,the floating population scale was relatively small because of the household registration system.After the reform and opening up,the floating population scale expanded rapidly and grew rapidly After 2010,the growth rate of the floating population began to decline,and in 2015,the floating population showed a negative growth stage;3.Empirical results show that for the whole country and the eastern region,there is a significant interaction between manufacturing industry agglomeration and population mobility.Among them,the impact coefficient of population flow on industrial agglomeration at the national level is 0.0501,the impact coefficient of industrial agglomeration on population flow is 1.212,the impact coefficient of population flow in the eastern region is 0.0668,and the impact coefficient of industrial agglomeration on population flow is 2.948.For the central and western regions,the interaction of this cycle accumulation is not significant now.With the return of population and the transfer of industry to the central and western regions,the interaction effect of this cycle accumulation will gradually appear.Based on the above research results,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: 1.We should attach importance to the role of population mobility in promoting the agglomeration of manufacturing industry,scientifically formulate population policies,and reasonably guide population mobility;2.We should attach importance to the role of manufacturing industry agglomeration in attracting population mobility,actively adapt to industrial transfer,take forward-looking measures to encourage industrial upgrading,and reasonably carry out industrial layout;3.In the process of manufacturing industry agglomeration and population flow in China,we should not only pay attention to the problems existing or encountered in their respective development,but also look at the overall situation,pay attention to the coordinated development and benign interaction between them,and maximize the double effects of economic development and social progress.