The Impact Of Shale Gas Exloitation On Trade Pattern And Market Integration Of Natural Gas

In recent years,the deepening development of unconventional energy such as shale gas,shale oil,and natural gas hydrate has exerted a profound impact on the conventional energy market such as natural gas and crude oil.Moreover,the commercial exploitation of Shale gas,an unconventional natural gas,leads to the US shale gas revolution: the increasing percentage of shale gas production to total natural gas production,natural gas surplus,dropping natural gas prices,and decreasing net import of natural gas,which also affects the global energy market.Meanwhile,China deeply trapped in the smoggy weather is eagerly expecting the era of cheap and clean natural gas and exploitation of shale gas might be a viable solution.In addition,shale gas exploitation(SGE)is classified into a China's Strategic Emerging Industry,manifesting Chinese policy on shale gas commercial development has come into maturity.And it is of great importance to study the path and mechanism in which SGE influences the natural gas prices,trade pattern,and market integration,and have a full understanding of its market effects,for it can place practical significance on commercial development of shale gas in abundant countries such as China,Poland and Mexico,and crucially help the further study of the path and mechanism in which unconventional energy development influences the conventional energy market.To begin with,this thesis reviews the relevant literature at home and abroad,elaborates theories,and then theoretically analyzes how SGE gradually affects the natural gas prices,trade,and thereby the market integration.Furthermore,it analyzes the impacts of SGE on natural gas prices,international trade and market integration,respectively and empirically explains how this works.For instance,it applies the state space model and Kalman filter to examine the price comovemnt among North American,European and Asian Pacific markets and then analyze the effect of SGE on the international market integration of natural gas.Finally,it draws the following conclusions: ? SGE reduces the natural gas price in North American market,and widens price gap among North America,Europe and Asia-Pacific,respectively.? SGE has changed the international trade pattern of natural gas,especially in reducing the transatlantic trade between the North American and European markets.? SGE mitigates the international market integration of natural gas.? SGE affects the international natural gas market in the mechanism in which production has an influence on price,price on trade,and finally trade on market integration.And this mechanism can be further applied to how unconventional energy impacts conventional energy market.Based on the conclusions,it puts forward two-dimensional policy containing SGE-level dimension and natural-gassupply-scale dimension.It attempts to make some breakthroughs in demonstrating the path of unconventional energy development affecting conventional energy market,namely a path in which production has an influence on price,price on trade,and finally trade on market integration,and analyzing the impact of SGE on the international market integration of natural gas by using state space model and Kalman filter.