Research On The Trade Destruction And Deflection Effect Of Anti-Dumping Policy

Along with the acceleration of world economic integration,trade liberalization has become the main trend in international trade,on the other hand,some countries use trade remedy measures frequently as a result of the demands of protecting domestic industry and ensuring the stable development of domestic economy.Currently,there are a lot of trade protection measures directed to China,typically a number of anti-dumping behaviors.For 21 consecutive years,China has become the first victim of the World Antidumping.Anti-dumping has adverse implications for our country to participate in international trade activities.Considering the particularity of the production,processing and exporting of agriculture products,this paper mainly studies how trade restriction and trade deflection of anti-dumping effect on export,with cases of anti-dumping on China's agricultural products.This paper is devoted to discussing the adverse effects on the exporting trade from the perspective of country under investigation,in order to improve the understanding of anti-dumping of agricultural products and provide theoretical reference for how the Chinese agricultural export corporations' tackle anti-dumping challenge effectively.First of all,we summarized the theories of anti-dumping of agricultural products and the trade effect of anti-dumping in existent literatures.On this basis,this paper studies on the effect of trade restriction and trade deflection on the export of products involved considering time-dependent variables.Taking the nine anti-dumping cases of agricultural products which are initiated and also ruled as the research object ranging from 2000 to 2010,this paper describes the change of the export of the products involved in the anti-dumping to the third countries by calculating the change of the trade data over the previous year.And then we conclude the impact of anti-dumping on China's export changes during the period according to the results of descriptive analysis.To verify the conclusions of the descriptive analysis and overcome the defects of neglecting other factors,on the basis of controlling the influence of GDP,China's total agricultural output,import tariffs,exchange rates and seasonal factors,this paper adopts the method of econometrics to mainly discuss the influence of the cross term of anti-dumping duty and time vector on the export of products with quarterly data of the 9 of the anti-dumping case agricultural products.The results show that,firstly,from the first year of taxation,the imposition of anti-dumping duties will limit the export of agricultural products to our country continually from the perspective of trade restrictions.Second,from the perspective of trade deflection,involved export enterprises would reduce the loss by increasing exports to the third market in the case of high anti-dumping duties.The effect of deflection on the outlet lags behind destruction.Third,taking the variations in the third markets into account,trade deflection is more clearly concentrated in the developed countries with relatively high level of economic development.Deflection to developing countries is not significant.There is no obvious difference in deflection effect between alternative markets and the others.According to the above research results,this paper puts forward the following two suggestions:first,we should actively respond to anti-dumping investigations and seek favorable decisions to reduce losses.And we should promote mutual benefit cooperation with other countries and create a favorable trade environment for export enterprises by actively participating in trade negotiations;second,we can regulate the export behavior of enterprises through the optimization of agricultural exports policy and provide a hedge against anti-dumping which is the outcome of harmful competition.We should also improve product quality and increase the added value of products to enhance the competitiveness of our enterprises;third,we should actively explore diversified export markets and seek more export channels for the enterprises.