The Study Of Hog Price Index Insurance Products Based On "Pig-to-Feed Ratio"

In order to better protect the income of pig farmers and alleviate the losses caused by the cyclical fluctuations of pig prices,China launched the first hog price index insurance in May 2013,with the "pig-to-grain ratio" as the compensation index,to protect the market risk of farmers.However,the promotion of large-scale farming and the adjustment of feed structure remind us to consider whether the "pig-to-grain ratio" indicator,which only considers the feed cost of corn,is still suitable as a basis for payment of hog price index insurance.The release of the "pig-to-feed ratio" indicator opened a breakthrough in answering this question.Compared with the "pig-to-grain ratio",the "pig-to-feed ratio" is a better choice in the choice of compensation indicators.Based on this,this paper designs the hog price index insurance product with the"pig,to-feed ratio" as the basis for claims.On the basis of summarizing domestic and foreign experience,analyze the feasibility of this indicator as a compensation index,and then re-determine the rate and design the product.Specifically,the main research contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly,it analyzes the key aspects of the operation of foreign hog price index insurance products,including insurance subject,insurance liability,index selection,etc.,and summarizes some experiences for domestic hog price insurance,such as the selection of price index,the limit of the number of underwriting and the setting of the adjustment factor.Secondly,it analyzes the operation of domestic hog price insurance products,in which it analyzes the domestic hog target price insurance and hog price index insurance about insurance conditions,claims basis,insurance period,insurance amount and insurance premium and compensation treatment.And it evaluates the development and effectiveness of domestic hog price insurance.It is found that there is still a need for improvement in the current domestic hog price insurance,such as the problem of adverse selection,the huge risk of large claims,and the unreasonable setting of compensation indicators.Thirdly,based on the analysis of the domestic situation and the experience of foreign countries,the design of hog price index insurance product was carried out based on the "pig-to-feed ratio",The feasibility of "pig-to-feed ratio" as a compensation indicator was analyzed,and the rate was determined by two ideas based on H-P filter analysis method and the balance point of "pig-to-feed ratio".Based on the monthly data for the "pig-to-feed ratio" from 2015 to 2018,the rates determined by the two ideas are 5.23%and 1.35%,respectively.The reason for the large difference between the two rates is that,on the one hand,due to the short time series of data.there is a certain error in fitting the original data by H-P filtering analysis.On the other hand,the trend sequence obtained by HP filter analysis reflects the market supply and demand situation,including more market information,so that the rate determined according to this is higher;and the balance point of "pig-to-feed ratio" mainly considers the actual aquaculture cost,including the market information is less,so the rate is lower.In the short term,the promotion of the latter is more feasible.However,in the long run,this paper believes that the former is more conducive to the role of the market mechanism to guide the price of swine,but also more in line with the policy orientation of "promoting the target price formation mechanism of agricultural products".