An Empirical Study On The Shadow Banking To Commercial Bank Stability

The shadow banking of China has developed rapidly since 2006.By the end of 2016,the size of China shadow banking exceeded seventy percent of GDP.The development of the shadow banking in China started lately,and there was no problems exposed by the shadow banks abroad.However,in recent years,with the development of the financial market,the financial innovation products are emerging one after another and people's business sense is improving.The rapid development of business,such as the cooperation among the banks,trust companies and security companies,has aroused widespread concern among scholars and people.People wonder whether our shadow banking will be the source of the next financial crisis.On the one hand,the existence of a certain size of shadow banking can effectively make up for the deficiencies of the financial system,broaden the financing channels,and improve the efficiency of financial resources allocation in the whole society.On the other hand,the development of shadow banking will make the credit risk and liquidity risk of commercial banks more prominent,lead to the serious hollowing of the real economy and weaken the foundation of China's econormic development.Therefore,it is necessary to study the relationship between the shadow banking and the stability of the commercial banks.This paper uses a qualitative method and a quantitative method.Firstly,comb the relevant papers and expound the definition,classification,characteristics,causes,specific forms and operating modes of the concept of shadow banking in China and measure its scale.Secondly,explain the relationship between the two parts theoretically in the positive and negative aspects,and construct and calculate a comprehensive index representing the stability of commercial banks according to the annual data of 2005-2016 years.Thirdly,obtain the regression model by the least square method OLS and the conclusion that there is a threshold effect between the shadow bank and the stability of the commercial bank.Thus the shadow banking should not be completely negated because of the financial crisis that has been caused by the foreign shadow bank,and it should be viewed objectively.At the present stage,the shadow banking in China is in the right side of the threshold,and its rapid development shows a negative impact on the stability of commercial banks.At present,in order to contribute to China's financial stability and economic development,we should pay attention to the supervision and management of shadow banks,and guide them to develop healthfully within a reasonable range.