Research On The Low-carbon Development Path Of China's Logistics Industry

Logistics industry is one of the basic industries in China's social and economic development,as well as the important promoter of the growth of carbon emission and energy consumption in China.At present,the high energy consumption and high emission of the logistics industry not only seriously affect the logistics level of profitability,but also increase the pressure of China's energy security,aggravate the harm degree of a series of problems such as regional environmental deterioration and global warming.Therefore,it is of practical significance to study the low-carbon development path of China's logistics industry and reduce carbon emissions through better path planning in the process of logistics supporting the prosperity and development of national economy,for the green and healthy development of logistics industry,the completion of China's emission reduction strategy and even the sustainable development of the entire economic and social environment.Based on the current development situation of China's energy environment and logistics industry,this paper studies the low-carbon development path of logistics industry from three aspects:(1)This paper employs the Tapio decoupling model to empirically calculate the decoupling relationship between China's logistics output and carbon emissions from 2003 to 2015,and analyzes the reality of the low-carbon development process of logistics industry in the sample years.Found that the decoupling relationship between China's logistics industry output and carbon emissions had a larger volatility.The decoupling state between them almost alternated between expansion negative decoupling,expansion coupling,and weak decoupling during the sample years,showing "V" and "W" type changes.The output growth carried a large carbon emissions burden,and the current situation of low-carbon development in logistics industry was not ideal.(2)The LMDI decomposition model is used to analyze the factors affecting the low-carbon development of logistics industry,and the influence of five factors,including energy structure,energy intensity,development level of logistics industry,economic development level and population size,on the carbon emission change of logistics industry is discussed.The factors that cause and inhibit the growth of carbon emissions in the logistics industry are summarized.The decoupling hard model is introduced to evaluate and analyze the efforts made by each factor in each year to achieve the decoupling of output growth and carbon emission of the logistics industry,and the factors that promote and hinder the low-carbon development of the logistics industry are summarized.(3)The IPAT model is adopted to set the related indicators affecting the low-carbon development path of the logistics industry,and three different paths of low-carbon development in China's logistics industry are designed: the current path,the low-carbon path and the high-level low-carbon path.Under three different paths,carbon emissions and the decoupling state between carbon emissions and output of logistics industry in 2016-2030 are forecasted.After that,for the development of China's logistics industry to the low-carbon path and promotes the development of logistics industry to the high-level low-carbon path,respectively from the perspective of structure,logistics industry of hard and soft power,as well as the concept and system,a detailed low-carbon path plan has been made.