Research On Supply And Demand Of Assembled Housing Market In Shenyang City Based On Non-equilibrium Theory

Through the development of nearly ten years,China has initially built a prefabricated residential system with Chinese characteristics,that is,it has formed a light steel structure,with wood structure,light steel-wood structure,light steel-reinforced concrete structure and light steel-steel.The structure is complemented by a fabricated residential structural system and has further exploration in residential integration.As the first "National Modern Building Industrialization Demonstration City",Shenyang City has made great progress in the field of fabricated houses in recent years,while the prefabricated houses are still in the initial stage of development in China,and all parties in the society are developing the assembled residential market.The status quo is not clear.Understanding the current situation of supply and demand is crucial to promoting the healthy development of the fabricated residential market.Therefore,this paper analyzes the current supply and demand situation of the fabricated residential market and helps to provide a basis for formulating strategies for further promoting the development of fabricated residential buildings.This paper analyzes the status quo of the development of prefabricated residential buildings in Shenyang through literature research,market research and other methods,and proposes 13 factors affecting the development of prefabricated residential buildings in Shenyang from the perspective of supply and demand,and uses the behavioral decision model and expectations.The principle of effect is to screen out the economic indicators that affect the supply and demand of fabricated houses.The indicators that affect the supply of fabricated houses are:residential price,expected price increase,development loan interest rate,average wage of construction industry,construction cost;The economic indicators are:disposable income,household savings balance,housing price,resident population,expected price growth,and provident fund loan interest rate.Construct a non-equilibrium econometric model of the prefabricated house,estimate the parameters of the model,and determine the coefficients of the model.The finalized unbalanced econometric model of the prefabricated residential buildings in Shenyang,through the model to analyze the correlation and elasticity coefficient of each index variable,and finally to estimate the supply and demand of the fabricated residential market in Shenyang by estimating the unbalanced degree of the fabricated residential market in Shenyang.The status quo,and propose countermeasures.The results show that the expected price increase has a significant impact on the efficient supply and effective demand of Shenyang City,and the corresponding elastic coefficients are 3.13 and-3.84 respectively.The reasonable deployment price will contribute to the benign development of the fabricated residential market;The construction cost of the residential house has the most significant impact on the effective supply of the prefabricated house.The corresponding elastic coefficient is-4.77,which means that for other conditions,the construction cost will change by 1%,and the effective supply will change by 4.47%.Combined with the survey data,the high construction cost is an important factor hindering developers from participating in the assembly-type residential project.Since 2012,the fabricated residential market in Shenyang is basically in a situation where the effective supply is greater than the effective demand,and the absolute value of the non-equilibrium Z is between 0.2 and 0.3.The fabricated residential market in Shenyang is in an abnormal fluctuation state.Adopt certain economic policies to regulate and control,so that the fabricated residential market in Shenyang can be developed in a healthy way.