Research On The Impact Of Agricultural Mechanization Level On The Transfer Of Rural Labour

Since the 21 st century,China has been calling for accelerating agricultural and rural modernization and building a modern socialist country.,and promoting the transfer of rural labor is an important measure to realize urbanization and agricultural modernization.The improvement of agricultural mechanization level can help transfer rural surplus labor,which plays an important role in promoting China's agricultural and rural modernization.therefore,based on the model of induced technical change theory and new structural economic theory,this paper takes agricultural mechanization level as an entry point and uses the substitution effect and the output effect to analyze the influence mechanism of agricultural mechanization level on the transfer of rural labour.And then based on the provincial panel data of 31 provinces of China from 2005 to 2016,using econometric analysis methods,this paper empirically verifies the influence of agricultural mechanization level on rural labor transfer.And by identifying the intermediate transmission mechanisms called as agricultural productivity and agricultural production scale to construct the theoretical analysis frame which is agricultural mechanization level-intermediate transmission mechanism-rural labour transfer,this paper uses the mediation effect model to empiricailly analyse the influence mechanismof agricultural mechanization level on the transfer of rural labour to provide policy proposals.More precisely,firstly,this paper explains the development status of China's agricultural mechanization level from three aspects: the total power of agricultural machinery,the number of agricultural machinery equipment and the operation level of agricultural machinery;And the paper explains the situation of rural labour transfer in China from two aspects: the amount of the transfer of rural labour and the status of rural labour transfer in different regions.Secondly,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of agricultural mechanizationlevel to the transfer of rural labour from the substitution effect and output effect.And using the panel data of 31 provinces(cities and autonomous regions)(except Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)in China from 2005 to 2016 to empirically examine the impact of the agricultural mechanization level on the transfer of rural labour.And then,according to the two intermediate transmission mechanisms called as agricultural productivity and agricultural production scale,the paper constructs the theoretical analysis frame which is agricultural mechanization level-intermediate transmission mechanism-rural labour transfer and uses the mediation effect model to empiricailly analyse the influence mechanismof agricultural mechanization level on the transfer of rural labour.The empirical results show that:(1)The agricultural mechanization level measured by the total power of agricultural machinery has a significant positive impact on the transfer of rural labour,for every 10000 kw increase in the total power of agricultural machinery,the number of rural labor will decrease by 0.134 million,and the regression coefficientcan pass the significance level test of 1%.Therefore,the agricultural mechanization level can promote the transfer of rural labour.(2)The improvement of agricultural mechanization level will increase agricultural productivity and promote the transfer of rural labour.Agricultural mechanization level has a significant impact on agricultural productivity,and the regression coefficientcan pass the significance level test of 1%.Therefore,the improvement of agricultural mechanization level will be conducive to the improvement of agricultural productivity;The regression coefficient of agricultural mechanization affecting the transfer of rural labour by affecting agricultural productivity is-0.132,which is less than the the direct effect of agricultural mechanization level on the transfer of rural labour.Therefore,the improvement of agricultural mechanization promotes the transfer of rural labor force by improving agricultural productivity.(3)The output effect of agricultural mechanization level on the transfer of rural labour is not established,that is to say,the improvement of agricultural mechanization level does not lead to the reduction of the scale of agricultural production so as to promote the transfer of rural labour.From the influence of agricultural mechanization level on agricultural production scale,the agricultural mechanization level can enlarge the scale of agricultural production,and the regression coefficient of the total power of agricultural machinery is 0.181,which pass the significance level test of 1% and means that for every 10000 kw increase in agricultural mechanization level,the agricultural production scale will increase by 0.181 thousand ha,in a nutshell,the raise of the agricultural mechanization level does not make agricultural production scale less,on the contrary,it expands the scale of agricultural production scale.This paper compares the influence model of agricultural mechanization level on rural labor transfer and the influence model of agricultural mechanization level and agricultural production scale on rural labor transfer,finding that the regression coefficient of agricultural mechanization level on the transfer of rural labour is-0.144 in the model of agricultural mechanization level and agricultural production scale,while the regression coefficient of agricultural mechanization level on the transfer of rural labour is-0.134 in the model of agricultural mechanization level on rural labor transfer.Therefore,the improvement of agricultural mechanization level does not lead to the reduction of the agricultural production scale and further promote the transfer of rural labour.(4)The total power of agricultural machinery in the east of the "huhuanyong line" and the west of the "huhuanyong line" have a significant impact on the transfer of rural labor,but the influence of agricultural mechanization level in the east of the "huhuanyong line" on the transfer of rural labor is about twice as great as that in the west of the "huhuanyong line".Finally,this paper puts forward four policy suggestions from the aspects of improving the agricultural mechanization level,accelerating regional economic development and helping to improve farmers' quality.