| Since the 1990s,especially after China's accession to the WTO,China's foreign trade volume has shown a sustained and rapid growth.The position and role of China's manufacturing industry in the division of labor in the global value chain has also attracted more and more attention.Especially after the 2008 world financial crisis,the global economic growth slowed down.Countries have become more aware of the key role of manufacturing,and it has become the commanding point of global economic competition.Many countries have formulated the're-industrialization" development strategy with the revitalization of manufacturing industry.In this context,China's manufacturing exports are facing the "two-way squeeze" of "high-end manufacturing reflux" in developed countries and "low-end manufacturing transfer" in developing countries.At the same time,China's manufacturing exports have been overestimated due to unreasonable statistical methods.Western developed countries have more and more trade frictions with China's manufacturing industry.Some western countries led by the United States even talk about "China Threat Theory".The reconstructing international trade rules and growing trade protectionism are intertwined,which makes China's manufacturing industry face more challenges and tests.So,what is the extent to which Chinese manufacturing industry participates in the division of global value chains?What is its position in the global value chain?How does China's manufacturing industry participate in the global value chain?What is the ability of Chinese manufacturing industry to control the global value chain?Is it in a dominant position or in a controlled position?Has it posed a threat to the United States and other Western countries?These are all problems that need to be clarified urgently.In order to measure the degree of participation of a country or department in the division of global value chains,scholars have carried out extensive research.However,due to the different methods used and the different perspectives of research,some conclusions are the same,some are similar,some are even contrary.This paper holds that a comprehensive measurement of a country or department's participation in the global value chain and its position in the global value chain should not only adopt scientific methods and detailed data,but also be based on a comprehensive evaluation from multiple perspectives.We should not only take into account the total export volume,but also take into full account its real profitability in the global value chain,the degree of participation in the value chain,the mode of participation,more importantly,its control,competitiveness and sustainable development ability in the global value chain.In view of this,according to the latest world input-output database published by OECD and WTO,this paper uses the inter-country input-output model to systematically depict the participation degree and position of China's manufacturing industry as a whole and its subdivisions in the global value chain from four perspectives:intermediate trade perspective,value added in trade perspective,participation mode perspective and technological contents perspective.It also makes a international comparison with the United States and Japan.Based on the above research ideas,this paper consists of seven chapters:Chapter 1:Introduction.This chapter mainly introduces the research background and significance,summarizes the existing research status,summarizes the research ideas,main research contents and possible innovations.Chapter 2:The theoretical basis.Define and sort out the related concepts and theories.It mainly includes:value-added trade,value-added trade,related concepts and theories of global value chain,related concepts and basic models of world input-output table.Chapter 3:The extent of manufacturing industry's participation in the division of global value chains:the perspective of intermediate trade.The typical manifestation of economic globalization is the rapid development of intermediate trade.Economists' understanding of the division of labor in global value chains began with the theoretical and Empirical Study of intermediate trade at the earliest stage.Under the framework of transnational input-output analysis,this chapter first examines the extent and trend of China's manufacturing industry's participation in the division of global value chains from the perspective of intermediate trade.The content includes two parts:The first part is to study the dependence of Chinese manufacturing industry on imported intermediaries and on specific trading partners from the perspective of intermediate imports.The second part is to study the dependence of Chinese manufacturing industry on export intermediaries and on specific trading partners from the perspective of intermediate exports.Through the above analysis,the source and destination of China's manufacturing intermediate imports are analyzed to find out which countries and regions are the main sources of China's manufacturing intermediate imports and which countries and regions are the export intermediate products of China's manufacturing industry flowing to.At the same time,the comparative analysis of China's role as an intermediary provider and China's role as an intermediary user is whether the former is greater than the latter or the latter is greater than the former;whether China is changing from a global production base of final products to a global production base of intermediaries.In a word,the interdependence between China's manufacturing industry and its trading partners and the position of China's manufacturing industry in the global value chain are measured through the correlation analysis of intermediaries.Chapter 4:The extent of manufacturing industry's participation in the division of global value chains:the perspective of value added in trade.With the increasing fragmentation of international trade,there are a lot of "double calculation" problems.The import and export trade value of customs statistics alone can not fully reflect the real foreign trade situation of a country.It is necessary to calculate the actual profits of a country or region in the division of labor in the global value chain from the perspective of added value.To some extent,the value added of exports can not only reflect the profitability of a country's exports,but also reflect the degree of a country's participation in the global value chain and its position in the global value chain.Therefore,on the basis of the correlation analysis of intermediate products in Chapter 3,this chapter introduces the method of added value accounting.By decomposing the total value of import and export trade of China's manufacturing industry,it measures the degree of China's manufacturing industry's participation in the division of global value chain and its profitability in the global value chain from the perspective of added value.This chapter mainly includes the following parts:Firstly,it decomposes the total export value of China's manufacturing industry as a whole and its subdivisions,calculates the composition of the added value of each part of the total export value and compares it horizontally with the United States and Japan;secondly,it decomposes the total import value of China's manufacturing industry as a whole and its subdivisions and calculates the composition of the added value of each part of the total import value.Then,according to the decomposition results of the total import and export value of manufacturing industry,the net foreign trade of China's manufacturing industry under the Customs statistical calibre and the added value statistical calibre are calculated respectively,and the difference between the net exports under the two accounting calibres is found out,and the real situation of the foreign trade of China's manufacturing industry is scientifically measured.Structural decomposition analysis was conducted to find out the main factors affecting the change of domestic value added of industrial exports.Chapter 5:The extent of manufacturing industry's participation in the division of global value chains:the perspective of participatory approach.Based on the profitability of Chinese manufacturing industry in the global value chain measured in the previous chapter,this chapter further studies the participation mode and degree of Chinese manufacturing industry in the global value chain.By calculating the forward and backward participation of Chinese manufacturing industry as a whole and its subdivisions in the global value chain,this paper explores how Chinese manufacturing industry as a whole and its subdivisions participate in the global value chain,and compares them with other countries in the world.Chapter 6:The extent of manufacturing industry's participation in the division of global value chains:the perspective of technological contents.To measure the participation degree and position of Chinese manufacturing industry in global value chain division,we should not only measure its export profitability,participation degree and participation mode in global value chain,but also examine whether it has certain competitiveness and sustainable development potential.Only if China's manufacturing industry has sustained competitiveness,can it have the ability to control the entire value chain,and can it remain invincible in the global value chain.Especially in the current global environment of cooperation and competition,China needs to further enhance the international competitiveness of manufacturing products and realize the transformation from "winning by price" to "winning by quality".Under the framework of input-output analysis and based on production process data,this chapter calculates the total technology content,domestic technology content and domestic technology content index of export products of China's manufacturing industry and its sub-sectors,and compares them with those of the United States,Japan and other countries.Finally,the factors affecting the domestic technology content of export products in manufacturing sector are analyzed by Structural Decomposition Analysis,and the key factors affecting the technology content of export products are found out,which provides a theoretical basis for formulating policies and countermeasuresChapter 7:Conclusions and prospects.This paper mainly summarizes the research conclusions of the whole paper and explains the shortcomings of the research and future research directions.Generally speaking,the analysis results of this paper show that:(1)From the perspective of intermediate trade,from 2000 to 2014,China's manufacturing industry imported mainly intermediate products,while exports mainly final products,showing distinct characteristics of processing trade,indicating that China's manufacturing industry is still at the lower end of the global value chain.However,in terms of the changing trend,the proportion of intermediate exports is gradually rising,while the proportion of final exports is gradually declining,indicating that China's manufacturing industry is rising from the low end of the global value chain to the middle and high end.From the point of view of subdividing industries,the computer optoelectronic industry is the most dependent on imported intermediaries,and the industry is also the most dependent on export intermediaries.The main sources of China's intermediate imports(countries or regions,the same below)are Japan,Taiwan of China,South Korea,the United States and Australia;the main purposes of China's intermediate exports are:the United States,Japan,South Korea,Germany and Taiwan of China.(2)From the perspective of value added in trade,the domestic value added rate of China's manufacturing industry during 2000-2014 shows a "V" trend of "falling first and then rising continuously".Taking 2009 as a turning point,it shows that the profitability of China's manufacturing industry in the global value chain is constantly improving;although there are still some gaps with the developed countries such as the United States and Japan,it continues to increase.The increasing profitability indicates that China's position in the global value chain is increasing day by day.By calculating and comparing the foreign trade balance of China's manufacturing industry under the customs statistical calibre and the trade added value accounting calibre,it is found that the foreign trade balance of China's manufacturing industry under the customs statistical calibre has been greatly exaggerated,and the net export under the customs statistical calibre is far higher than that under the trade added value calibre.The decomposition analysis of the influencing factors from 2000 to 2008 and from 2009 to 2014 shows that the same factor has great differences in the degree of impact on export added value in different periods,in 2000-2008,the final product export is the main influencing factor of the growth of domestic added value of manufacturing exports;in 2009-2014,the intermediate product export becomes the system.The main factors influencing the growth of domestic added value of manufacturing exports.Compared with 2000-2008,the impact of technological progress on promoting domestic value added of exports is increasing in 2009-2014,while the impact of intermediate and final exports on promoting export value added is gradually weakening.(3)From the perspective of participation,the main way for Chinese manufacturing industry to participate in the global value chain is backward participation.However,forward participation is increasing while backward participation is decreasing.It shows that China is changing from backward linkage to forward linkage.In addition,the proportion of imported intermediate products is decreasing,and the proportion of export intermediate products is increasing.To a certain extent,the manufacturing industry in China is gradually changing from the base of using intermediate products to the base of providing intermediate products.(4)From the perspective of Technological Contents,the Total Technological Contents,Domestic Technological Contents and Domestic Technological Contents Index of China's manufacturing export products from 2000 to 2014 show a relatively rapid growth trend,indicating that the technological structure of manufacturing export products is constantly upgrading,and the competitiveness and sustainable development ability in the global value chain are constantly strengthening,and Chinese manufacturing industry is rising from the low-end of global value chain technology to the high-end of technology.Although there is a certain gap with the United States and Japan,it shows a trend of gradual convergence to the United States and Japan.(5)Generally speaking,China's manufacturing industry is still at the lower end of the global value chain from the perspective of intermediary trade,value added trade,participation mode and technology content.However,from the perspective of development trend,China's manufacturing industry's profitability in the division of global value is improving,and the way of participation is also changing from backward to forward.Competitiveness is also constantly improving,showing the trend of climbing to the middle and high end of the value chain.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)The degree of China's manufacturing industry's participation in global value chain is measured and analyzed from various angles and aspects.At present,scholars mostly study the degree of participation of a country or industry in the division of GVC from one or two perspectives.In addition,different methods of use and different data sources make the research results lack credibility,and it is difficult to obtain universal recognition.This paper evaluates the degree of China's manufacturing industry's participation in the division of global value chain from four progressive perspectives,namely,the perspective of intermediate trade,the perspective of added value of trade,the perspective of participation mode and the perspective of technology content.(2)By using the latest world input-output database,the time span of the study period is extended,the timeliness of the study is improved,and the stage characteristics and new development trend of Chinese manufacturing industry's participation in global value chain can be more comprehensively reflected.We can not only analyze the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on China's manufacturing exports,but also observe the new features and trends of China's foreign trade after entering the new normal economic situation.Through the research,it can provide some theoretical support for the realization of the tasks and objectives set by Made in China 2025.(3)Unlike other scholars who only focus on decomposing the total value of trade exports,this paper not only calculates the domestic and foreign added value contained in the total value of China's manufacturing exports,but also calculates the foreign and domestic added value of the total value of manufacturing imports.On this basis,the net export value of China's manufacturing industry under the customs statistical calibre and the trade added value calibre is compared.Through the analysis,on the one hand,it can be explained that the traditional customs trade statistics exaggerate the trade surplus of Chinese manufacturing industry due to the existence of "duplicate" calculation;on the other hand,it also shows that under the background of global value chain,international trade is no longer bilateral,but multilateral,and there are many indirect beneficiaries besides both sides of the trade.(4)Structural decomposition analysis(SDA)is used to make an empirical analysis of the main factors affecting the change of value added of China's manufacturing exports and the change of domestic technology content of export products.At present,econometric models are widely used by scholars when they study the influencing factors of China's export value-added changes and the technological content of export products.However,the establishment of econometric models has not only strict assumptions,but also problems such as missing variables,multicollinearity and residual.Compared with econometric models and other statistical analysis methods,SDA has its unique advantages:Firstly,SDA is very suitable for investigating the relationship between industries;secondly,it can compare and analyze the input-output tables of two different years,which is a comparative static analysis method.To a certain extent,it has the characteristics of dynamic input-output analysis method,which can test the technological progress and structural changes in the process of economic development;lastly,it can compare with others.SDA is more convenient for investigating the periodic characteristics of the relations among economic variables.Of course,there are still some shortcomings in this paper,which are mainly manifested in:(1)Data limitations.First,limited by the availability of statistical data,the world input-output table contains only 43 countries(regions),not all countries and regions.Second,there is a lack of labor data in other countries and regions in social and economic accounts,so when calculating the total technology content of export products,domestic technology content and domestic technology content index,it will affect the accuracy of the total technology content of export and domestic technology content index to a certain extent,but it has no effect on the more important domestic technology content.Thirdly,when calculating the technical content of export products,we adopt the labor productivity indicators of various industries.Although the labor productivity indicators are obviously better than the per capita GDP indicators used by previous scholars,the ideal indicators should be total factor productivity or other more scientific indicators.However,due to the availability of data,this paper can not measure the total factor productivity of various industries in various countries,so it is still worth further study and Discussion on this point.(2)There is no price reduction in the world input-output table data.There are two reasons:first,there is no uniform and appropriate price index for price reduction because of the row-to-row and row-to-row balance in the input-output table.If different price indices are used for different industries,the horizontal and vertical balance of the input-output table will be affected.Second,because this study is to a large extent a structural analysis and trend analysis,although no price reduction,but the results of research and calculation will not cause too much deviation. |
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