Research On Risk Identification And Evaluation Of Logistics Park Project Based On PPP Mode

The logistics park has the advantages of facility sharing and functional integration,and its planning layout is closely related to the regional industrial structure and economic development level.In recent years,numerous policy dividends from the land policy,investment and financing innovation and other dimensions,to promote the development of logistics industry,investment demand significantly amplified.Different from the traditional economic development zone model or the mode of large-scale logistics enterprises led by a single investment entity,the PPP model can alleviate local financial pressure and effectively improve the development efficiency of logistics parks.However,unlike the rail transit,urban development,and environmental protection industries,the application of the PPP model for the specific field of the logistics park is still in its infancy,and the relevant cases and literature are insufficient.At the same time,the logistics park PPP project has a large investment scale and long implementation period,involving the division of labor and cooperation of multiple participants.The relationship between stakeholders is complex and the risk factors are complex.The risk identification of this paper includes the identification of risk influencing factors and the identification of structural relationships of risk influencing factors.The risk factor identification adopts the classicism grounded theory research method to form the logistics park project risk list,including three risk levels,eight risk categories and 27 basic risks.Because the risk factors of the logistics park project under the PPP mode have multiple influences,it is difficult to accurately grasp the risk source by evaluating the risk factors separately and ignoring the relationship structure between the risk factors.Therefore,based on the identification of risk factors,this paper uses the explanatory structure model to analyze the structural relationship of 27 basic risk factors in the risk list.Forming a multi-level hierarchical structure diagram,divide the risk factor hierarchy,and analyze the conduction path.The risk factors are divided into the clustering risk,the process type risk and the source type risk.The analysis of the key risk factors is the reference for the following risk assessment and risk prevention measures.In the aspect of risk assessment,the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the risk assessment index system of the logistics park project under the PPP model,and the relative importance weight of each risk factor indicator.Through the case study of “Huanghua Port Logistics Park”,the validity and applicability of the qualitative analysis and quantitative model are verified,and the corresponding risk management strategies and countermeasures are proposed.