Risk Assessment Of Refining EPC Project Duration Based On Grey Correlation And TOPSIS Method

The petroleum industry is an extremely important strategic substance in the development of the country.It has a wide range of uses and values,and plays an important role in chemical,military,agricultural,and transportation.Therefore,oil is called the "blood of industry." ".The construction of refinery projects is not only characterized by large scale,long duration,and large investment,but also in the actual construction control,various risks are inevitable,such as investment risk,quality risk,construction period risk,natural disaster risk,etc.The most common occurrence occurs.Therefore,it is of great significance to distinguish and evaluate the risk of engineering construction period.This paper first introduces the application,advantages and disadvantages of the commonly used comprehensive evaluation methods,then reviews the research status of risk management of refining projects at home and abroad,and combines the characteristics and existing problems of China's refining project construction period risk management system to study the gray.The application of the associated method in project risk analysis and its advantages.According to the multi-factor,multi-level and inter-connected characteristics of the construction period risk system,the risk evaluation index and grey correlation evaluation model of refinery project are constructed.The method is used to evaluate the correctness and effectiveness of the method.The research content of this thesis is aimed at the rationality of the grey relational theory in the risk management of the refining and chemical engineering project period,and has a certain guiding role for the development of the risk management of the subsequent refining and chemical engineering project to the quantitative,scientific and standardized direction.The risk management of the construction and development process provides a reference and has certain theoretical and practical significance.