A Study On Trade Imbalance Of Agricultural Products Between China And Other Brics Countries In The Context Of The Belt And Road Initiative

The BRICS countries have long been each other's closest partners,and the Belt and Road Initiative,which has been widely recognized by BRICS countries,is bound to promote the in-depth cooperation among BRICS countries in trade,investment,finance and other fields.The Belt and Road Initiative promotes all-round interconnection of policies,facilities,trade,capital,and people's hearts in all countries of the world.Interconnection has become the main theme of cooperation among countries under the Belt and Road Initiative,and the continuous improving of the hard and soft environment between countries are two levels of objective requirements for achieving interconnection.It can be seen that the improvement of the hard and soft environment can facilitate the trade between the two countries.Therefore,this paper firstly combs the current situation of agricultural products trade between China and other BRICS countries and finds that the agricultural products trade between China and other BRICS countries has been in an imbalance for a long time,and China has been in a deficit for a long time,and explains the reasons for the deficit.Secondly,in order to explore the impact of the Belt and Road on China's export trade of agricultural products to other BRICS countries,this paper introduces the relevant evaluation indicators of the hard environment and soft environment,and other basic indicators affecting trade flows as explanatory variables to model for exploring the factors affecting China's export trade of agricultural products to other BRICS countries,the significance of these indicators is tested by regression analysis,and the evaluation indicators data of the hard and soft environment before and after the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative are respectively brought into the regression equation together with other basic indicators data for calculation to predict China's amount of exports of agricultural products to other BRICS countries before and after the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.Then,the export potential of agricultural products is evaluated.Finally,this paper proposes countermeasures to promote China's export trade of agricultural products to other BRICS countries and optimize the export trade structure of China's agricultural products.The research results show that: the overall comparative advantage of China's agricultural products is weak,the trade complementarity of China's agricultural exports to other BRICS countries is weak,and the trade integration degree of China's agricultural exports to other BRICS countries is low,which are the reasons for the long-term imbalance of agricultural products trade between China and other BRICS countries and the long-term trade deficit of China;The GDP and the port infrastructure conditions(representing the hard environment)of other BRICS countries can significantly promote China's export trade of agricultural products to other BRICS countries;The population and the trade-weighted average tariff level(representing the soft environment)of China and other BRICS countries can significantly inhibit China's export trade of agricultural products to other BRICS countries;Under the Belt and Road Initiative,the improvement of the port infrastructure conditions(representing the hard environment)of other BRICS countries and the reduction of the trade-weighted average tariff level(representing the soft environment)of China and other BRICS countries can significantly promote China's export trade of agricultural products to other BRICS countries,indicating that China's export trade of agricultural products to other BRICS countries has greater potential under the Belt and Road Initiative.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper proposes the following policy recommendations:(1)Adhere to the common development of domestic economy and foreign trade,and promote China's export trade of agricultural products to other BRICS countries.(2)Create a good trading environment for agricultural products export through the Belt and Road Initiative.(3)Optimize the structure of export trade of agricultural products.