Research On The Coordinated Development Of Urbanization And Real Estate Market In Chongqing

Since the reform and opening up,with the economic development on the right track,the speed of urbanization has been significantly improved.In 2018,the urbanization rate of China's permanent population reached 59.58%.Under the background of rapid urbanization construction,more and more agricultural populations have moved to cities.The increase in housing demand has driven the rapid development of the real estate industry,which has also led to some undesirable “complications” and seriously affect the urbanization process and quality.As a national pilot area for comprehensive urban and rural reforms,Chongqing is also a strategic area for the coordinated development of the western economy and society.It is necessary to explore whether the urbanization and the real estate market are coordinated.How to promote the coordinated development of urbanization and real estate market has become an urgent problem to be solved.On the basis of studying the literature about urbanization and real estate market,this paper deeply analyses the interaction mechanism between urbanization and real estate market from the theoretical point of view,finds the causal relationship between various factors,and establishes the system dynamics simulation model and coordinated development evaluation model of the interaction between urbanization and real estate market.Taking Chongqing as an example,this paper evaluates the coupling coordination degree between urbanization and real estate market in Chongqing from 2001 to 2017 by using the coordinated development evaluation model.The interaction process between them is further discussed by using Granger test and impulse response function.The relationship between variables in the subsystem is regressively fitted,and the fitting results are imported into the system dynamics simulation model to verify the validity of the model.With the help of VENSIN PLE simulation platform,the scenario simulation experiment of coordinated development of urbanization and real estate in Chongqing is carried out,and the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward according to the experimental results.Through the above research,we find that: 1)the impact between urbanization and real estate market is more complex.2)From 2001 to 2017,the coupling and coordinated development degree of urbanization and real estate market in Chongqing is steadily on the rise.Relatively speaking,the development of real estate market presents the evolution track of "ahead-backward-ahead-backward".There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two.When the lag is 1-3,the two are causal.The impact of the real estate market on urbanization is both promoting and restraining,while urbanization has a certain role in promoting the development of the real estate market.3)By substituting historical data of Chongqing,the simulation model of system dynamics is found to be effective.4)Increasing the government's economic support,adjusting the industrial structure,increasing space investment,and reducing the real estate tax rate will have different effects on the coordinated development of urbanization and the real estate market.It is not conducive to the promotion of the coordinated development level of the two by focusing solely on one aspect of the development plan.We can formulate measures from social security system,land system,industrial and financial system,tax system and other aspects to promote the coordinated development of the two.