Research On Influence Factors Of Cities' Land Supply Decision-Making

Urbanization is the foundation for achieving modernization,playing an important role as the potential for domestic demand and motivation for development.After 18th CPC National Congress,the Party Central Committee began to further promote the new urbanization and made a series of strategic decisions for this purpose.Urbanization is the inevitable result of economic development.When the scale of city is out of limit and the space for development is insufficient,it is necessary to expand and integrate the underused and unused land resource.In the process of city's expansion,the future of the city significantly depends on whether local governments could make the correct land supply decision.Nowadays,previous 'empirical land supply decision-making' has some problems in display,bringing some consequences into our society with the promotion of urbanization.Based on the theoretical analysis,study constructs the utility function and builds the decision-making model of land supply actions made by local governments,in order to figure out whether the local governments are able to effectively make inter-periods decision.The empirical analysis focuses on the local governments'land supply decision and the studies use the panel data of twenty large and medium cities throughout country to find the factors,which have the significant influence on the land supply decision.Through theoretical analysis and empirical research,the following conclusions are drawn.First,when the local governments make decision depending on the preference of themselves,they will tend to sell more land in the future in order to maximize its utility when the amount of the land sold is larger than the increment of land reservation.If the local governments do not adjust the increment of land reservation in time,it will cause a deficiency in a short time,causing a series of social problems.Second,the urban land supply has a causal relationship with the economic development,the real estate price,and the fiscal situation,respectively,with each other.The local governments should predict the future land demand based on the current situation of all aspects to achieve the balance of land supply and demand.Third,empirical research shows that GDP significantly affects the local governments'land supply decisions.When the regional GDP rises 100 million yuans,the local government will provide 1.375 hectares more land in next month in order to follow up the pace of economic development.At the same time,the decline in the net income of local governments' fiscal situation,in other words,the pressure of the fiscal situation,would lead the governments to provide more land of higher values to the market in pursuit of higher land premium.Fourth,the current local governments' land supply decision is in a more 'task' than'strategy' way.The local governments will provide more land to the market at the end of the year and the end of the quarter in order to complete or perfect their economic and political performance,rather than to coordinate the relationship between land supply and land demand.Last,the local governments do not tend to expand the scale of land supply when controlling the price of the real estate.Although this mode has some positive effects,it has also pushed up the house price to some extents.